Issue 02 · September 2026 · Triple-checked
Live deskEnergy · Issue 01 · Energy
In 2025, renewable electricity generated more power than coal for the first time in the modern era. Solar did most of the work.
33.8%
Renewables share of world electricity, 2025
Open full storyA magazine by @creainteractiva. The lead graphic plays on screen. Every other module is drawn in the first paint.
Reconstruction · The hall
Shared linear axis, 1999–2026. Circulating charts print golf at 655 billion gallons. The last GCSAA/USGA survey is 531. The rack is still the bottom line.
Resources · The hall · Resources
Lawrence Berkeley counted 17.4 billion gallons of on-site water at US data centres in 2023. A 2026 path toward the lab’s 38–73 billion-gallon 2028 range still sits near 28. California almonds, from USDA acres at 3.0 acre-feet, sit near 1,355. US golf applied 531 in 2024. The campus can dry a local aquifer. It does not move a national ledger.
50×
CA almonds vs US data-centre on-site water, 2026 path
Open full storyDaily watch
Four desks, one module each, selected by the calendar. The series are published prints — not a live feed. They still play while on screen. Tomorrow a different chart sits in each chair.
Technology · Issue 02 · Technology
500k
Waymo paid trips per week, Mar 2026
Open full storyTechnology · Issue 02 · Technology
1,220
Korea, robots per 10,000 employees (IFR 2026)
Open full storyTechnology · Issue 01 · Technology
5×/yr
Frontier training compute since 2020
Open full storyDemographics · The hall · Demographics
UN World Urbanization Prospects 2025, new Degree of Urbanisation: Jakarta 41.9 million, the world’s largest city. The previous vintage had it at about 12 million and 30th. Dhaka 36.6. Tokyo 33.4, no longer first. Nine of the ten largest cities are in Asia. Seven of them are capitals.
41.9m
Jakarta, 2025 (WUP 2025)
Open full storyMarkets desk
2022 is the year the 40% failed. Signed bubbles, a 60/40 rank, SPY versus TLT, CAPE at the start. The reconstruction hall stays below.
New · Market memory · Markets · Correlation · Markets
Same Damodaran splice: 0.4 × (10-year − S&P). 2008 the mix beat 100% equities by 22.7 points. 2022 by 0.1. The milder equity year was the worse product. Ranked smallest first.
0.1 pp
60/40 vs 100% S&P, 2022
Open full storyNew · Market memory · Markets · Issue 02 · Markets
27 → 57%
Jan 2007 CAPE, then GFC depth
Open full storyGold did the 1970s job. Not 2008’s. Not 2022’s.
Gold, Damodaran, calendar 2022
+0.55%
The 45-degree line is a 60/40 that did no work
2022 60/40 vs 100% S&P
0.08 pt
Index each crash to 100. 2020 is a V. 2008 is a hole. 2022 is a grind.
GFC, Feb 2009 month-end, peak = 100
47
Twelve months when the 40% fell with the 60%
TLT in Oct 2022, Dec 2021 = 100
65
2022 is the worst 60/40 since 1937. 2008 was kinder.
60/40 in 2022, Damodaran splice
−18.0%
The same six assets. Two crashes. One of them changed jobs.
10-year Treasuries, 2008 then 2022
+20 → −18
The hall
Four reconstructions on the wall. The rest of the hall is a spark index — open any row for the full interactive.
Resources · Issue 02 · Resources
USGS 2025e: 2.6 million tonnes of 3.9 million. The Philippines is second, at 270,000. Australia halved output and parked mines. The battery metal is a one-country ore.
67%
Indonesia’s share of mined nickel, 2025e
Open full storyGeopolitics · Issue 02 · Geopolitics
UN via Stimson: China delivered 53.8% of global commercial gross tonnage in 2025. South Korea 27.3%, Japan 13.1%. CSIS: the United States was 0.11% in 2024 and effectively none in 2025. East Asia built 94% of the hulls.
53.8%
China’s share of commercial GT, 2025
Open full storyResources · The hall · Resources
USGS/OWID mine production, summed year by year: 793 million tonnes, 1900–2022. ICSG: 396 million in 2000–2022 alone. S&P’s 53 million-tonne 2050 year is 7% of the century, not more than it. The slogan compared a year to a sum.
7%
53 Mt vs 793 Mt mined, 1900–2022
Open full storyResources · The hall · Resources
ICSG refined usage: 15.1 Mt in 2000, 25.9 in 2022, 28.2 in 2025. IEA STEPS reaches 37.5 Mt in 2050. S&P’s 2022 net-zero path went to 53. S&P’s own 2026 update stops at 42 in 2040. The viral chart is not a year-table.
37.5
IEA STEPS copper demand, 2050 (Mt)
Open full storyAlso in the hall · 11
Jakarta was thirtieth. Then they counted the city.
Jakarta, 2025 (WUP 2025)
41.9m
Forty-eight thousand, not seventeen
US data-centre on-site vs US irrigation
0.04%
A payment system that grew 12,000-fold
UPI volume, FY2017 to FY2026
12,000×
429 parts per million
Mauna Loa CO₂, July 2026 (ppm)
429.12
Four hundred million barrels
IEA collective stock release, 11 Mar 2026
400 mb
1.5 billion people left extreme poverty
People in extreme poverty, 2025
831m
One year of China, America’s entire fleet
China solar additions, 2025 (IEA)
370 GW
A $95 million genome, for $525
NHGRI cost per genome, May 2022
$525
The greatest story almost no one tells
Under-five mortality since 1990
−60%
A battery for $108
Li-ion pack price per kWh, 2025
$108
The cheapest electron in history
Solar PV LCOE, 2025 (IRENA)
$44
11 investing themes
Just added · 6 new graphics
New · Market memory · Markets · Issue 02 · Markets
−56.8%
GFC, 9 Oct 2007 – 9 Mar 2009
Open full storyNew · Market memory · Markets · Issue 02 · Markets
48 mo
2009 low to 28 Mar 2013 high
Open full storyNew · Market memory · Markets · Issue 02 · Markets
41.93
Shiller CAPE, 2 Sep 2026 (Multpl)
Open full storyNew · Market memory · Markets · Issue 02 · Markets
−18.0%
60/40 in 2022, Damodaran splice
Open full storyNew · Market memory · Markets · Issue 02 · Markets
47
GFC, Feb 2009 month-end, peak = 100
Open full storyNew · Market memory · Markets · Issue 02 · Markets
27 → 57%
Jan 2007 CAPE, then GFC depth
Open full storyTheme
AI is an energy, memory and interconnection buildout wearing a software costume.
Technology · The hall · Technology
NHGRI tracked the all-in cost of sequencing a human-sized genome from $95.3 million in 2001 to $525 in May 2022. That is a 181,000-fold collapse — faster than Moore’s law by more than two orders of magnitude. Biology became a compute problem while we were watching chips.
$525
NHGRI cost per genome, May 2022
Open full storyTechnology · The hall · Technology
India’s UPI did 241.6 billion transactions in FY2025–26, from 20 million in FY2016–17. July 2026 alone: 23.66 billion. This is the largest real-time payment rail on earth, and it is a public good wearing a QR code.
12,000×
UPI volume, FY2017 to FY2026
Open full storyData-centre water, in a field of almonds
CA almonds vs US data-centre on-site water, 2026 path
50×
Forty-eight thousand, not seventeen
US data-centre on-site vs US irrigation
0.04%
The power behind intelligence
Data-centre electricity, 2025
485 TWh
The chip supercycle
WSTS spring-2026 forecast for 2026 sales
$1.51 tn
15 more in this theme — open the theme for the full live desk.
Theme
Renewables have overtaken coal. The rest of the work is grids, metals and firm power.
Energy · The hall · Energy
Utility-scale solar now costs $44 per megawatt-hour. In 2010 it was about $445. That is a 90% collapse in fourteen years — the steepest learning curve of any energy technology we have a number for.
$44
Solar PV LCOE, 2025 (IRENA)
Open full storyEnergy · The hall · Energy
BloombergNEF’s 2025 survey: lithium-ion packs at $108/kWh, 93% below 2010. Stationary storage packs hit $70. This is the other learning curve, and it is why batteries ate the peak-gas plant.
$108
Li-ion pack price per kWh, 2025
Open full storyOne year of China, America’s entire fleet
China solar additions, 2025 (IEA)
370 GW
Four hundred million barrels
IEA collective stock release, 11 Mar 2026
400 mb
429 parts per million
Mauna Loa CO₂, July 2026 (ppm)
429.12
Data-centre water, in a field of almonds
CA almonds vs US data-centre on-site water, 2026 path
50×
24 more in this theme — open the theme for the full live desk.
Theme
Fewer children is the slowest, most reliable force on this site — and the least priced.
Demographics · The hall · Demographics
In 1990, one in eleven children died before five. In 2024 it was one in twenty-seven. The rate fell 60%. 4.9 million deaths is still an outrage. It is also 7 million fewer than 1990, every single year.
−60%
Under-five mortality since 1990
Open full storyDemographics · The hall · Demographics
The World Bank’s current line: 2.3 billion people lived on less than $3 a day in 1990. In 2025 the number is 831 million. That is the largest welfare improvement in history, and it has almost stopped.
831m
People in extreme poverty, 2025
Open full storyJakarta was thirtieth. Then they counted the city.
Jakarta, 2025 (WUP 2025)
41.9m
The age of fewer children
Global total fertility rate (UN WPP 2024)
2.25
India’s decade, China’s middle age
India calendar-year growth, 2026 (IMF)
~7%
China installed half the world’s robots
China’s share of new industrial robots, 2024
54%
12 more in this theme — open the theme for the full live desk.
Theme
Europe and Asia are paying to re-learn how to make weapons. America is still the largest cheque.
Markets · The hall · Markets
In fiscal 2025 the United States paid $970 billion in net interest on the public debt. Defence cost $893 billion. The bond market is now a larger federal programme than the armed forces.
$970bn
US net interest, FY2025 (CBO)
Open full storyGeopolitics · The hall · Geopolitics
On 11 March 2026 the IEA voted to release 400 million barrels from emergency stocks — three times the 2022 Ukraine actions combined, six times Katrina. The Strait of Hormuz is still not a market you can count on.
400 mb
IEA collective stock release, 11 Mar 2026
Open full storyChina builds 54% of the world’s ships. America builds none.
China’s share of commercial GT, 2025
53.8%
Indonesia mines two-thirds of the world’s nickel
Indonesia’s share of mined nickel, 2025e
67%
The rearmament decade
World military expenditure, 2025
$2.89 tn
The chip supercycle
WSTS spring-2026 forecast for 2026 sales
$1.51 tn
13 more in this theme — open the theme for the full live desk.
Theme
The energy transition’s least elastic input is not silicon. It is copper — and the refineries that sit in one country.
Resources · The hall · Resources
ICSG refined usage: 15.1 Mt in 2000, 25.9 in 2022, 28.2 in 2025. IEA STEPS reaches 37.5 Mt in 2050. S&P’s 2022 net-zero path went to 53. S&P’s own 2026 update stops at 42 in 2040. The viral chart is not a year-table.
37.5
IEA STEPS copper demand, 2050 (Mt)
Open full storyResources · The hall · Resources
USGS/OWID mine production, summed year by year: 793 million tonnes, 1900–2022. ICSG: 396 million in 2000–2022 alone. S&P’s 53 million-tonne 2050 year is 7% of the century, not more than it. The slogan compared a year to a sum.
7%
53 Mt vs 793 Mt mined, 1900–2022
Open full storyIndonesia mines two-thirds of the world’s nickel
Indonesia’s share of mined nickel, 2025e
67%
The copper bind
Implied copper supply shortfall by 2035
30%
China still refines the transition
China’s average share of refined supply, 20 minerals
70%
One in four new cars is now electric
World new-car sales that were electric, 2025
25%
7 more in this theme — open the theme for the full live desk.
Theme
A $348 trillion ledger is the constraint on every other ambition in this magazine.
Markets · The hall · Markets
In fiscal 2025 the United States paid $970 billion in net interest on the public debt. Defence cost $893 billion. The bond market is now a larger federal programme than the armed forces.
$970bn
US net interest, FY2025 (CBO)
Open full storyMarkets · Issue 01 · Markets
$348 tn
Global debt stock, end-2025 (IIF)
Open full storyHard money, soft reserves
Official gold holdings, 2025 (IMF)
$4.5 tn
India’s decade, China’s middle age
India calendar-year growth, 2026 (IMF)
~7%
A quieter catastrophe year is not a safer planet
Insured nat-cat losses, 2025
$107bn
The dollar is slipping, not falling
US dollar share of allocated FX reserves, 2026Q1
57.1%
7 more in this theme — open the theme for the full live desk.
Theme
A $1.5 trillion chip forecast is a bottleneck report dressed as a market size.
Markets · The hall · Markets
Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla are worth $23.7 trillion. That is more than China’s entire economy, and more than Germany, Britain and India added together. A market cap is not a GDP. It is still the most offensive chart in the issue.
$23.7tn
Magnificent 7 market cap, Aug 2026
Open full storyTechnology · The hall · Technology
NHGRI tracked the all-in cost of sequencing a human-sized genome from $95.3 million in 2001 to $525 in May 2022. That is a 181,000-fold collapse — faster than Moore’s law by more than two orders of magnitude. Biology became a compute problem while we were watching chips.
$525
NHGRI cost per genome, May 2022
Open full storyThe chip supercycle
WSTS spring-2026 forecast for 2026 sales
$1.51 tn
The power behind intelligence
Data-centre electricity, 2025
485 TWh
Seven names, a third of the S&P
Magnificent 7 share of the S&P 500, Aug 2026
33.9%
Five firms, more than the oilfield
Big-tech capex, 2025 (IEA)
$400bn+
7 more in this theme — open the theme for the full live desk.
Theme
Official gold is a $4.5 trillion line item. Most of the gain is price. The bid is still there.
New · Markets · Correlation · Markets
Each bubble is a calendar year. X is Damodaran’s S&P total return. Y is his 10-year Treasury. Size is gold. 2008 is the upper-left hedge. 2022 sits on the 45-degree line, both down 18%.
−18.0 / −17.8
S&P and 10-year Treasuries, 2022
Open full storyNew · Markets · Correlation · Markets
X is Damodaran’s 2008 calendar return. Y is 2022. Size is how far the job changed. Treasuries are the outlier: +20% in the GFC, −18% in the rate shock. The S&P just fell twice.
+20 → −18
10-year Treasuries, 2008 then 2022
Open full storyGold did the 1970s job. Not 2008’s. Not 2022’s.
Gold, Damodaran, calendar 2022
+0.55%
Hard money, soft reserves
Official gold holdings, 2025 (IMF)
$4.5 tn
The $348 trillion ledger
Global debt stock, end-2025 (IIF)
$348 tn
The dollar is slipping, not falling
US dollar share of allocated FX reserves, 2026Q1
57.1%
3 more in this theme — open the theme for the full live desk.
Theme
Depth, wait, correlation, and the starting multiple. A crash is a close. 2022 is the year the 40% failed.
New · Markets · Correlation · Markets
Each bubble is a calendar year. X is Damodaran’s S&P total return. Y is his 10-year Treasury. Size is gold. 2008 is the upper-left hedge. 2022 sits on the 45-degree line, both down 18%.
−18.0 / −17.8
S&P and 10-year Treasuries, 2022
Open full storyNew · Markets · Correlation · Markets
X is Damodaran’s S&P calendar return. Y is 60% that S&P and 40% his 10-year. The dashed line is Y = X: the mix is the stock. 2008 sits far above it. 2022 sits on it.
0.08 pt
2022 60/40 vs 100% S&P
Open full storyGold did the 1970s job. Not 2008’s. Not 2022’s.
Gold, Damodaran, calendar 2022
+0.55%
The 40% saved 23 points in 2008. In 2022 it saved none.
60/40 vs 100% S&P, 2022
0.1 pp
The same six assets. Two crashes. One of them changed jobs.
10-year Treasuries, 2008 then 2022
+20 → −18
Twelve months when the 40% fell with the 60%
TLT in Oct 2022, Dec 2021 = 100
65
10 more in this theme — open the theme for the full live desk.
Theme
Displacement, insurance, the shot, the tourist, the ageing body — the world as inhabited, not as a factory.
Demographics · The hall · Demographics
In 1990, one in eleven children died before five. In 2024 it was one in twenty-seven. The rate fell 60%. 4.9 million deaths is still an outrage. It is also 7 million fewer than 1990, every single year.
−60%
Under-five mortality since 1990
Open full storyDemographics · The hall · Demographics
The World Bank’s current line: 2.3 billion people lived on less than $3 a day in 1990. In 2025 the number is 831 million. That is the largest welfare improvement in history, and it has almost stopped.
831m
People in extreme poverty, 2025
Open full story429 parts per million
Mauna Loa CO₂, July 2026 (ppm)
429.12
A payment system that grew 12,000-fold
UPI volume, FY2017 to FY2026
12,000×
Data-centre water, in a field of almonds
CA almonds vs US data-centre on-site water, 2026 path
50×
Forty-eight thousand, not seventeen
US data-centre on-site vs US irrigation
0.04%
19 more in this theme — open the theme for the full live desk.
Theme
The century’s scarce layer is not the model or the module. It is the wire, the cable, the hull, the rocket, the queue.
Energy · The hall · Energy
In 2025 China commissioned nearly 370 GW of solar. The United States has 279 GW of solar standing from every year it has ever installed. A single Chinese vintage now outweighs a civilisation’s stock.
370 GW
China solar additions, 2025 (IEA)
Open full storyGeopolitics · The hall · Geopolitics
On 11 March 2026 the IEA voted to release 400 million barrels from emergency stocks — three times the 2022 Ukraine actions combined, six times Katrina. The Strait of Hormuz is still not a market you can count on.
400 mb
IEA collective stock release, 11 Mar 2026
Open full storyA payment system that grew 12,000-fold
UPI volume, FY2017 to FY2026
12,000×
53 million tonnes is a 2022 scenario, not USGS
IEA STEPS copper demand, 2050 (Mt)
37.5
Jakarta was thirtieth. Then they counted the city.
Jakarta, 2025 (WUP 2025)
41.9m
China builds 54% of the world’s ships. America builds none.
China’s share of commercial GT, 2025
53.8%
25 more in this theme — open the theme for the full live desk.
Intelligence infrastructure
AI is an energy, memory and interconnection buildout wearing a software costume.
21 live graphics
The electric century
Renewables have overtaken coal. The rest of the work is grids, metals and firm power.
31 live graphics
Demographic inversion
Fewer children is the slowest, most reliable force on this site — and the least priced.
18 live graphics
Security premium
Europe and Asia are paying to re-learn how to make weapons. America is still the largest cheque.
19 live graphics
Scarce materials
The energy transition’s least elastic input is not silicon. It is copper — and the refineries that sit in one country.
14 live graphics
Fiscal gravity
A $348 trillion ledger is the constraint on every other ambition in this magazine.
13 live graphics
The compute stack
A $1.5 trillion chip forecast is a bottleneck report dressed as a market size.
13 live graphics
Monetary insurance
Official gold is a $4.5 trillion line item. Most of the gain is price. The bid is still there.
9 live graphics
Market memory
Depth, wait, correlation, and the starting multiple. A crash is a close. 2022 is the year the 40% failed.
16 live graphics
The lived world
Displacement, insurance, the shot, the tourist, the ageing body — the world as inhabited, not as a factory.
25 live graphics
Distribution tech
The century’s scarce layer is not the model or the module. It is the wire, the cable, the hull, the rocket, the queue.
31 live graphics
2022
A 60/40 of Damodaran’s two series lost 18%
S&P −18.04%, 10-year Treasuries −17.83%. The mix saved 0.1 points versus 100% equities. 2008 saved 22.7 because the 40% returned +20.1%.
2025
Indonesia mined 67% of the world’s nickel
USGS: 2.6 Mt of 3.9. Philippines 270 kt. Australia halved. The battery metal is a one-country ore.
2025
China poured more steel than the rest of Earth
Worldsteel: 960.8 Mt of 1,849.4 — 52%. India 164.9, just past America and Japan together.
2025
Congo mined 73% of the world’s cobalt
USGS: 230 kt of 310. Indonesia 14%, as a nickel by-product. The United States mined 300 tonnes.
2025
Gold’s year averaged $3,431. In 2022 it was $1,800.
WGC: +44%, 53 record highs. Q2 2026 printed $4,506 — a quarter, not a year.
2025
Cooling used 2,900 TWh — more than the European Union
IEA: +50% since 2015. Peak 1,400 GW. Data-centre cooling is 80 TWh. The rack is not the air-conditioner.
2025
China built 53.8% of the world’s ships. America built none.
UN GT: Korea 27.3%, Japan 13.1%. US 0.11% in 2024, effectively none in 2025. East Asia delivered 94%.
2024
Kazakhstan mined 39% of the world’s uranium
WNA: 60,213 tU. Canada 24%, Namibia 12%. Kazatomprom 25,839 tU in 2025. The fuel for the nuclear return is three countries.