Timeline
A century, in crossings
The dates the world actually changed. Each line is a published print, not a slogan.
2022
A 60/40 of Damodaran’s two series lost 18%
S&P −18.04%, 10-year Treasuries −17.83%. The mix saved 0.1 points versus 100% equities. 2008 saved 22.7 because the 40% returned +20.1%.
2025
Indonesia mined 67% of the world’s nickel
USGS: 2.6 Mt of 3.9. Philippines 270 kt. Australia halved. The battery metal is a one-country ore.
2025
China poured more steel than the rest of Earth
Worldsteel: 960.8 Mt of 1,849.4 — 52%. India 164.9, just past America and Japan together.
2025
Congo mined 73% of the world’s cobalt
USGS: 230 kt of 310. Indonesia 14%, as a nickel by-product. The United States mined 300 tonnes.
2025
Gold’s year averaged $3,431. In 2022 it was $1,800.
WGC: +44%, 53 record highs. Q2 2026 printed $4,506 — a quarter, not a year.
2025
Cooling used 2,900 TWh — more than the European Union
IEA: +50% since 2015. Peak 1,400 GW. Data-centre cooling is 80 TWh. The rack is not the air-conditioner.
2025
China built 53.8% of the world’s ships. America built none.
UN GT: Korea 27.3%, Japan 13.1%. US 0.11% in 2024, effectively none in 2025. East Asia delivered 94%.
2024
Kazakhstan mined 39% of the world’s uranium
WNA: 60,213 tU. Canada 24%, Namibia 12%. Kazatomprom 25,839 tU in 2025. The fuel for the nuclear return is three countries.
2026
Amazon guided $200 billion of capex. Four firms, about $700 billion.
Microsoft $190bn. Alphabet April $175–185bn, July top $205bn. Goldman’s four-firm sum $725bn. Named cheques, not the IEA aggregate.
2050
53 Mt of copper is a 2022 scenario, not USGS
IEA STEPS: 37.5 Mt. S&P 2026: 42 Mt by 2040. Cumulative mine 1900–2022: 793 Mt. 53 is 7% of the century, not more than it.
2000
World refined copper usage was 15.1 Mt, not 20
ICSG annex and USGS Yearbook. The viral chart’s 20 Mt is the distortion that makes doubling look broken.
2026
McDonald’s: seven years as WARC’s most effective brand
Award points, not ROAS. Unilever swept Creative, Media and Effective 100. Costco-to-Hims is not a WARC table.
2040
S&P has scrap on a path to 10 Mt of copper
2024 secondary refined: 4.7 Mt of 27.5. The other mine does not need a permit. It needs collection.
2026
Waymo does 500,000 paid trips a week
From 50,000 in May 2024. Fourteen US cities, about 4,000 vehicles. Tesla still has no weekly print.
2025
Jakarta is the world’s largest city, 41.9 million
UN WUP 2025. Previous vintage: 12 million, 30th. Dhaka 36.6. Tokyo 33.4 and third.
2050
Dhaka first, Tokyo seventh
WUP path: Dhaka and Jakarta each ~52 million. Tokyo ~31 million.
2025
43% of Korea lives in Seoul
22.5 million of 51.7 million. Delhi is 2% of India. A capital is not always a country.
2026
Korea: 1,220 robots per 10,000 workers
IFR density wrap. Singapore 818. Germany 449. Humanoids still almost unused.
2023
US data centres used 17.4 billion gallons on site
LBNL: cooling towers. Power plants used another 211. California almonds, about 1,350. USGS irrigation, 43,000. The well is local. The ledger is an orchard.
2015
US thermoelectric withdrew 48,525 billion gallons
USGS Circular 1441, last complete census. Irrigation 43,118. Data-centre on-site 2023 is 0.04% of irrigation.
2024
US golf applied 531 billion gallons
GCSAA: 1.63 million acre-feet, 31% below 2005. Still ~30× the 2023 data-centre print. Not 655.
2024
Two-thirds of the Suez Canal, gone
1.568 billion tonnes in 2023; 525 million in 2024. 2025 still on the floor. A strait is a technology.
2025
Lithium carbonate at $9,000 a tonne
USGS: from $71,100 in 2023. Production 290 kt. The spike was a warehouse.
2026
Mauna Loa reads 429 ppm
NOAA July 2026: 429.12 ppm. Pre-industrial air was about 280. The Keeling curve has not paused.
2026
Largest oil-stock release in IEA history
400 million barrels on 11 March. World supply −4.3 mb/d. Hormuz is still not a market.
2026
US emergency crude at a 43-year low
DOE: 294 million barrels in the SPR on 20 August, from 727 million at the 2009 peak.
2026
Japan’s 10-year clears 3%
First print above that line since 1996. US 10-year 4.75%. UK 5.26%. The cost of money is a regime again.
2026
Memory is half the chip industry
WSTS: $804 billion of memory inside a $1.51 trillion year. A 250% jump is rationing.
FY2026
UPI does 241 billion payments in a year
NPCI / PIB: 12,000-fold since FY2017. July 2026 alone: 23.66 billion transactions.
2023–25
First three years averaging above 1.5°C
Copernicus ERA5: 2024 hottest at 1.60°C; 2023–2025 together cleared Paris’s number.
2025
Renewables generate more electricity than coal
Ember: 10,730 TWh vs 10,476 TWh. Solar does the heavy lifting.
2025
China ships 2.5 million electric cars
IEA: exports doubled in a year. More than a third of China’s car exports are now electric.
2025
One in four new cars is electric
IEA: 21 million sales. China already past half of its own market.
2025
Batteries outbuild the gas turbine’s best year
IEA: 108 GW of storage added — more than gas plants in 2002.
2025
Germany’s heat pump outsells the gas boiler
EHPA: 50% of German space-heating sales. Europe 2.9 million units, stock 29 million.
2025
Korea still the lowest-fertility civilisation
Statistics Korea: TFR 0.75 in 2024, 0.80 preliminary in 2025. Replacement is 2.1.
2024
One in nine adults has diabetes
IDF Atlas 2025: 589 million adults, toward 853 million by 2050.
2022–26
One billion people living with obesity
NCD-RisC: 878 million adults in 2022, from 194 million in 1990. Children take the total past a billion.
2023
India becomes the most populous country
UN WPP 2024: India 1,429 million, China 1,426 million. The gap only widens.
2025
US net interest overtakes defence
CBO: $970 billion of coupons, $893 billion for the Pentagon.
2025
China’s solar year exceeds America’s entire fleet
IEA 370 GW vs SEIA 279 GWdc standing. A flow larger than a stock.
2025–30
Data centres double their electricity use
IEA base case: 485 TWh in 2025 toward ~950 TWh in 2030.
2030s
World fertility crosses replacement
UN: TFR 2.25 now, 2.1 in the 2030s. Peak population in the 2080s.
2029
Public debt back to 100% of world GDP
IMF Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 — a year earlier than last year’s path.
2050
Nuclear, if governments mean it
WNA target path 1,446 GWe. IAEA high case is still under 1,000.
Open the graphics or compare two series.