How we triple-check a number

Base-case data-centre electricity: 415 TWh in 2024, ~945 TWh in 2030.

Updated path: 485 TWh in 2025, ~950 TWh in 2030. AI-focused sites +50% in 2025; all data centres +17%.

Global electricity demand +3.3% in 2025 and +3.7% in 2026; consumption over 29,000 TWh in 2026.

Solar PV +600 TWh in 2025, the largest single-year increase by any source outside post-crisis recoveries.

Renewables overtake coal-fired output in 2026; solar set to pass wind as the second-largest renewable source.

2025: renewables 10,730 TWh (33.8%) overtook coal 10,476 TWh (33.0%). Solar 2,778 TWh (+636 TWh).

Peak ~10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. Global TFR 2.25; China 1.01; more than half of countries below replacement.

Life expectancy 73.3 years in 2024; 65+ outnumber children under 18 by 2080.

World military spending $2,887 billion in 2025, +2.9% real, 11th consecutive rise.

US $954bn; China $336bn; Russia $190bn; Europe $864bn (+14%).

Copper implied 30% supply shortfall by 2035; lithium fivefold demand growth to 2040 in STEPS.

Lithium demand +~30% in 2024. LFP near half of EV battery market. China dominant refiner for 19 of 20 minerals, ~70% average share.

Global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025; 100% by 2029.

Nearly $29 trillion added in 2025; total global debt a record $348 trillion.

2026 market projected at $1.51 trillion, +90%; memory >$800 billion.

2025 actual sales $792 billion, +25.6% — strongest since 2021.

Net official-sector purchases 289 tonnes in Q2 2026.

Official gold holdings ~$4.5 trillion by 2025; share of reserves from 10% (2019) to over 22% (Aug 2025), mostly valuation.

Spot near $4,600/oz on 25 Aug 2026; GS year-end 2026 forecast $4,900/oz.

China 2026 growth 4.6%; India among fastest major economies (calendar-year ~7.0% in 2026).

438 operable reactors, 397 GWe as of 1 Oct 2025. Government-target path 1,446 GWe by 2050.

Record 2,667 TWh generated from nuclear (WNA accounting year).

Independent reading of IEA, Deloitte and Goldman paths for data-centre power.

Electric car sales >20 million in 2025 (one in four new cars). 2026 forecast 23 million, 28% of sales. Chinese automakers 60% of global EV sales.

China 13 million EV sales; Europe 4.2 million (28%); US ~1.5 million (~10%); rest of world 2 million.

21 million electric cars sold in 2025, +20%. China more than half of all car sales electric.

ERA5: 2025 1.47°C above 1850–1900; 2024 1.60°C (hottest); 2023–2025 average exceeded 1.5°C for the first time.

ERA5 annual anomalies vs 1991–2020. Long-term warming ~1.4°C. Offset to 1850–1900 is 0.88°C.

2025 1.19°C above 1951–1980; 2024 remains the hottest year in the NASA record.

108 GW of new battery storage in 2025, +40%. Installed capacity eleven times 2021. China ~60% of additions.

Utility-scale 87 GW of 108 GW. China just over 63 GW; US 19 GW. Additions exceeded the 2002 peak for gas-fired capacity (~107 GW).

US remains import-reliant on China for a long list of critical minerals, including rare earths, graphite, gallium.

542,000 robots installed worldwide in 2024; China 295,000 (54%) and >2 million operational stock.

Mag7 combined market cap $23.7 trillion in August 2026; 33.9% of the S&P 500.

End-2025: 117.8 million forcibly displaced. 41.6 million refugees, 9 million asylum-seekers, 68.7 million IDPs. 45 million of the total are children.

First annual decline in a decade. Refugees −3% to 41.6 million. IDPs 68.7 million, −7% from end-2024. 5.4 million newly sought safety abroad in 2025.

End-2024: 123.2 million forcibly displaced — the high-water mark before the 2025 decline.

2025: $107 billion insured, $220 billion economic, 190 events. Record 49% insured share. $40 billion from Los Angeles wildfires. 2026 trend $148 billion if the long-run path holds.

2024 insured natural-catastrophe losses $137 billion.

2023: $280 billion economic, $108 billion insured.

H1 2026 insured losses ~$42 billion, below a $66 billion trend. Lowest first half since 2020.

1.52 billion international arrivals in 2025; receipts $1.9 trillion. 2026 outlook +3% to +4%. Europe 793 million, Asia-Pacific 331 million, Americas 218 million, Middle East ~100 million, Africa 81 million.

2025 a new post-pandemic record. 2024 had already recovered to ~1.4 billion arrivals.

Obesity associated with 3.7 million deaths in 2024; projected to double by 2030. GLP-1s reach <10% of those who could benefit by 2030 even with rapid scale-up. Economic cost ~$3 trillion a year by 2030.

Global obesity-medicines market $66 billion list-price in 2025; $92 billion forecast for 2026; $105–200 billion thereafter. Oral Wegovy launched US January 2026.

Confirms IQVIA $66 billion 2025 obesity-drug market. Lilly Mounjaro $9.94 billion and Zepbound $4.93 billion in the quarter.

US dollar share of allocated FX reserves 57.13% in 2026Q1, up from 56.42% in 2025Q4. Euro ~20%.

Dollar 56.77% in 2025Q4; euro 20.25%. Total FX reserves $13.14 trillion.

People aged 60+ : 1.0 billion in 2020, 1.4 billion in 2030, 2.1 billion in 2050. Age 80+ triples to 426 million by 2050.

By the late 2070s, 65+ reaches 2.2 billion and outnumbers children under 18. Mid-2030s: 265 million aged 80+ outnumber infants.

More than 2,500 GW of projects stalled in grid queues (renewables, storage, large loads). Grid investment ~$400bn/yr; +50% needed by 2030. Global electricity demand +3% in 2025; +3.6%/yr 2026–2030.

Connection queues at record levels. Permitting 5–15 years vs 1–3 years for a data centre. Component prices nearly doubled in five years.

Energy investment $3.3tn in 2025. Electricity sector $1.5tn. Grids ~$400bn vs ~$1tn on generation. Clean $2.2tn vs fossil $1.1tn.

Large power transformers: up to four years to secure. Cables 2–3 years. Lead times almost doubled since 2021. Transformer prices +75% since 2019.

Largest tech companies’ capex exceeded $400bn in 2025, expected to jump another 75% in 2026. Five firms now spend more than global oil and gas production investment. AI factories more than tripled in 18 months.

11,102 Starlink satellites in orbit as of 27 August 2026; 11,087 working. First 60 launched 23 May 2019.

International bandwidth 1,835 Tbps in 2025, +23% y/y. Four-year CAGR 24% (2021–2025). Africa 38% CAGR.

~15 new subsea cables in 2025 ($3.2bn). Nearly 40 in 2026 (~$6bn), highest in a decade. 2026 map: 694 systems.

694 submarine cable systems, 1,893 landing stations.

324 orbital launch attempts in 2025. SpaceX 165 Falcon 9 — more than the rest of the world combined. China 92. 2024: 259. 2023: 221. 2020: 107 (SpaceX 26, China 35).

259 attempts in 2024. SpaceX 134 Falcon 9/Heavy (96 in 2023). China 68.

Seaborne trade +2.2% in 2024, +0.5% in 2025. Tonne-miles +6% in 2024. SCFI averaged 2,496 in 2024, +149% vs 2023. July 2024 spot ~$3,600/container.

World GDP $126.3 trillion. United States $32.38tn, China $20.85tn, Germany $5.45tn, United Kingdom $4.26tn, India $4.15tn. Advanced $73.81tn, EMDE $52.48tn.

Solar PV LCOE USD 44/MWh in 2025, unchanged from 2024. Onshore wind $33/MWh, offshore $78/MWh.

Solar PV LCOE $0.043/kWh in 2024, a 90% reduction since 2010. Onshore wind $0.034/kWh (−70%). 91% of new utility-scale renewables cheaper than the cheapest new fossil alternative.

Volume-weighted average pack $108/kWh in 2025, −8% y/y, 93% below 2010. Stationary storage packs $70/kWh (−45%). China average $84/kWh. LFP $81, NMC $128.

Under-five mortality 93.5 per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 37.4 in 2024 (−60%). 4.9 million under-five deaths in 2024 (1 in 27) vs 1 in 11 in 1990.

Training compute for frontier language models has been growing at 5× per year since 2020 (doubling every 5.2 months; 0.7 OOM/year).

12,187 warheads in January 2026; 9,745 in military stockpiles; ~4,012 deployed.

Peak ~70,300 warheads in 1986. ~12,187 at start of 2026.

Shuttle ~$54,500/kg to LEO. Falcon 9 advertised $62m / 22,800 kg ≈ $2,720/kg.

All-in cost per human-sized genome at NHGRI-funded centres. September 2001 $95,263,072; May 2022 $525. Series not updated past May 2022. Illumina $200 claims are reagent list, not this accounting.

FY2025: net interest $970 billion; defense $893 billion; nondefence discretionary $980 billion; mandatory $4.2 trillion; deficit $1.8 trillion (5.8% of GDP); debt held by the public 99% of GDP.

US solar installed 43.2 GWdc in 2025 (−14%). Cumulative 279 GWdc at year-end 2025.

Global solar PV additions surpassed 600 GW in 2025; cumulative ~2,800 GW. China commissioned nearly 370 GW of solar PV and 117 GW of wind.

From 1990 to 2025, people living in extreme poverty declined from around 2.3 billion to 831 million, on less than $3/day (2021 PPP international poverty line).

Nowcast: extreme poverty 10.3% in 2024 to 10.1% in 2025 on the current line. 839 million in 2024 after an upward revision.

6 billion people online in 2025 (74% of world population), up from 5.8 billion in 2024. 2.2 billion remain offline.

US crude including lease condensate averaged a record 13.6 million b/d in 2025, above the 13.2 million b/d record of 2024. Russia 9.9, Saudi Arabia 9.6.

Officially recorded remittances to LMICs expected at $685 billion in 2024, larger than FDI and ODA combined. Series: 2017 $465bn … 2023 $647bn … 2024 $685bn.

TSMC 73% of pure-play foundry revenue for two consecutive quarters in 2026. Samsung Foundry ~7%, SMIC ~5%.

Official-sector net purchases 863 tonnes in 2025, after 1,092 t in 2024. 2010–2021 annual average 473 t. 2022–24 each above 1,000 t.

Central banks accumulated an average of 1,000 t a year over the past four years, vs ~500 t over the preceding decade.

Joint IEA/World Bank/WHO/IREN tracking: 655 million without electricity. 2024 IEA commentary had 730 million — vintages differ; this is the June 2026 print.

More than half the world lives in urban areas, up from about one-third in 1950, toward about two-thirds by 2050. 2025 Degree of Urbanisation: Jakarta ~42 million (1st), Dhaka ~37 million, Tokyo 33 million. Previous vintage had Jakarta ~12 million (30th).

32 members unanimously agreed to make 400 million barrels available. Sixth collective action; previous: 1991, 2005, 2011, twice in 2022.

Six collective actions since 1974. 2026 is the largest. 2022 was two actions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

World supply −4.3 mb/d in 2026 to 102 mb/d; +8.3 mb/d in 2027 to 110.3. Gulf July output 23.9 mb/d, still 8.3 below pre-war. Demand −1.6 mb/d in 2026. Hormuz closed again in early July.

Hormuz 2Q26 4.9 mb/d vs 21.6 in 4Q25. World liquids 2024 103.1, 2025 106.1, 2026 100.8, 2027 109.7. Neighbouring vintage to IEA 102 / 110.3.

31 August 2026 print: 4.75%. Annual averages 2015–2024 from the same series (2015 2.14 … 2024 4.21).

Japan 10-year ~3.01% in early September 2026, first print above 3% since 1996. UK 10-year ~5.26% the same week. 2015–2025 annuals reconstructed from OECD long-term government series. Not a ministry year-table.

2026 total $1,511bn (+90%); memory $804bn (+250%); 2027 total ~$1.91tn, memory $1.06tn. 2025 memory $230bn of ~$796bn in the same table (our 2025 total uses the $792bn actual print).

2025: 2.9 million sales in 21 European countries, +13%; stock 29.3 million. Germany: +50% sales, 50% of national space-heating market for the first time.

16-country 2025 print: 2.62 million, +10.3%, stock ~28 million. Germany almost half of heat generators sold. Neighbouring coverage to the 21-country 2.9 million wrap.

Adults with obesity: 194 million in 1990, 878 million in 2022 (504 million women, 374 million men).

NCD-RisC 2026 vintage: more than one billion people living with obesity; almost 3 billion with overweight or obesity.

2022: 2.5 billion adults overweight, including 890 million with obesity. Neighbouring vintage to NCD-RisC’s 878 million.

July 2026 monthly mean 429.12 ppm; July 2025 427.87. Annual means from co2_annmean_mlo. 2026 on our chart is the July monthly, not a closed annual.

FY2016–17: 2 crore (20 million) transactions. FY2025–26: 24,162 crore (241.62 billion). ~12,000-fold.

July 2026: 23.66 billion transactions, ₹29.88 trillion. Calendar 2025: 228.3 billion.

Preliminary 2025 TFR 0.80, up from 0.75 in 2024. Births 254.5 thousand, deaths 363.4 thousand.

2024 TFR 0.75. 2023 trough 0.72. Series used for 2015–2024 annual points.

H1 2026 Chinese electric-car exports +120% y/y; EV share of China’s car exports >45%, from ~35% in 2025. Home car sales −20%.

294.1 million barrels as of 20 Aug 2026. Peak 726.6 million on 27 Dec 2009. End-CY2025 411 million.

589 million adults 20–79 with diabetes in 2024 (11.11%). 853 million projected for 2050.

252 million adults undiagnosed in 2024 (42.8%). China, India, Indonesia = 50.5% of that stock.

US LNG exports 17.0 Bcf/d in 2026 (+1.9), +1.5 in 2027. Net gas exports 18.7 Bcf/d in 2026.

2025 LNG exports 14.6 Bcf/d, +24–26% y/y. Capacity FIDs ~9 Bcf/d in 2025.

Q2 2026: AWS 28%, Azure 20%, Google Cloud 15%. Combined 63%. Google Cloud run-rate $99bn.

Q3 2025: AWS 29%, Microsoft 20%, Google 13%, combined 63%.

Shehabi et al., LBNL-200163 / DOI 10.71468/P1WC7Q. On-site US data-centre water 17.4 bn gal in 2023; direct 38–73 bn gal by 2028. Indirect (power-plant) ~211 bn gal in 2023; total 469–844 bn gal by 2028.

Wrap of Shehabi 2024: 17.4 bn gal on-site 2023 ≈ 160,000 households; 38–73 bn gal by 2028. Google 6.1 bn gal consumed 2024; Council Bluffs 2.8 million gal/day consumed.

2024 print: 1.63 million acre-feet applied = 531 bn gal. −31% vs 2005, −3.2% vs 2020. Peer-reviewed in HortTechnology (Shaddox et al. 2025).

2020 print: 1.68 million acre-feet = 547 bn gal, −29% vs 2005, −9% vs 2013. Used to derive 2005 (771 bn gal) and 2013 (602 bn gal).

Bearing acres: 1999 485,000; 2003 550,000; 2007 615,000; 2011 760,000; 2015 890,000; 2019 1.17m; 2023 1.38m. 2026 Land IQ 1,385,870; USDA subjective ~1.39m.

California pistachio bearing acres ~488,000 in 2024, +25,000 y/y; nearly fivefold in two decades. 2025 crop record; acreage ~520,000-class.

Household-equivalent arithmetic for LBNL’s 17.4 bn gal ≈ 160,000 homes. Pool top-off order of magnitude used to reconstruct the residential-pool series.

Dieter et al., Circular 1441. Last complete national census: 322,000 Mgal/d. Thermoelectric 132,944; irrigation 118,131; public supply 38,999; industrial 14,788. Converted in-house to bn gal/year × 365 / 1,000.

Battery-grade lithium carbonate: 2021 $11,700/t; 2022 $63,700; 2024 $11,800; 2025 $9,000. World mine output 290,000 t lithium content (2025e); 222,000 in 2024.

US lithium carbonate annual average $71,100/t in 2023, $14,000 in 2024 (−66% as stated in some wraps; $14,000 / $71,100 is −80%. We print the dollar figures). 2024 later revised to $11,800 in MCS 2026.

SCA prints via SIS: net tonnage 1.207 bn (2019), 1.169 (2020), 1.275 (2021), 1.410 (2022), 1.568 record (2023), 0.525 (−66.5%, 2024). Vessels 26,434 (2023), 13,213 (2024, −50%).

2025 transits 12,758, −3.4% vs 13,213 in 2024. Used to reconstruct 2025 tonnage at 2024 tonnes-per-ship.

More than 200 million fully autonomous miles; millions of miles a week.

Fleet ~4,000 robotaxis across 14 US cities; 500,000 paid trips per week. Denver, San Diego, Tampa added. 50,000 weekly in May 2024 to 500,000 in March 2026 is the widely cited ladder.

20 million cumulative rides by Feb 2026. Q4 2025 weekly peak >300,000; 3.4 million fully driverless rides in the quarter.

Weekly rides peaking above 350,000 in March 2026; cumulative public rides 22 million by April 2026; 27 cities.

Korea 1,220 robots per 10,000 employees (highest; ~7%/yr since 2019). Singapore 818. Germany 449. China 166 per 10,000 people employed — broader denominator than manufacturing density.

Jakarta nearly 42 million (1st); Dhaka almost 37 million; Tokyo 33 million. Previous vintage had Jakarta ~12 million / 30th. Dhaka expected largest by mid-century; Tokyo seventh at ~31 million. Cairo only top-ten city outside Asia.

WUP 2025: Jakarta 41.9 million, Dhaka 36.6, Tokyo 33.4. Worldometer UN 2025 column matches and adds 2030/2050 paths used in Dhaka will be first.

WUP 2025 wrap: Tokyo largest in 2000, overtaken by Jakarta and Dhaka. 2050: Dhaka and Jakarta each >50 million. Tokyo ~31 million, seventh. London 10.4 million (33rd). Istanbul 15 million, Moscow 14.5 million.

Net-zero Multitech Mitigation: refined demand ~25 Mt (2021) → ~50 Mt (2035) → 53 Mt (2050). The 53 Mt clause is written as greater than all copper consumed 1900–2021 — an annual-vs-cumulative slogan, not a USGS print.

S&P’s current path: 28 Mt (2025) → 42 Mt (2040). Recycled scrap more than doubles toward 10 Mt. No 53 Mt 2050 figure. This is the update of the 2022 study.

Refined usage, Mt: 2022 25.86; 2023 26.64; 2024 27.42; 2025 28.20. Mine: 21.90 / 22.35 / 22.96 / 23.20. Apr 2026 forecast: usage +1.6% in 2026, +2.0% in 2027.

396 million tonnes mined 2000–2022. Reserves grew 457 Mt to ~890 Mt over the same window.

Apparent refined usage from <500 kt (1900) to 27.4 Mt (2024); long-run CAGR 3.3%. The 1900–2024 usage chart is the template the viral infographic copies.

World mine 23,000 kt (2024 and 2025e). World refinery production 27,600 kt (2024), 29,000 kt (2025e). World reserves ~980 Mt. MCS is mine + refinery, not a 1900–2050 consumption chart and not a 53 Mt forecast.

World refined copper consumption 15.3 Mt in 2000. The viral infographic’s 20 Mt 2000 label is ~30% too high.

FAQ: roughly 700 million metric tons produced to date (a cube ~430 m on a side). Behind a year-by-year USGS/OWID sum of 793 Mt mined 1900–2022.

ICSG-based: world refined production 26.5 Mt (2023), 27.5 Mt (2024) of which 22.8 primary and 4.7 secondary. World mine ~23 Mt (2024); Chile 5.3 Mt.

Total refined copper demand 2050, Mt: STEPS 37.6, APS 39.5, NZE 40.9. 2023 base 25.9. NZE 2040 is +50% vs 2023, not a doubling to 53.

Award-points table, not ROAS. 2026: #1 campaign Dove ‘Real Beauty’; #1 brand McDonald’s (7th consecutive year); #1 advertiser Unilever (hat-trick across Creative, Media and Effective 100). Methodology: Grand Prix 10 / Gold 6 / Silver 4 / Bronze 2 × show weight. No sales, no marketing dollars.

Building space cooling (data centres excluded) +50% since 2015 to ~2,900 TWh; 14% of global electricity-demand growth; 1,400 GW peak in 2025. Data-centre cooling 80 TWh in 2025. STEPS +1,600 TWh by 2035. El Niño sensitivity +700 TWh.

China’s share of commercial shipbuilding output from <5% in 2000 to >53% in 2025. US 0.11% in 2024, effectively none in 2025. Korea+Japan from 58% to 38% over a decade. CSSC > US industry since WWII.

UN gross-tonnage 2025: China 53.8%, South Korea 27.34%, Japan 13.09%. East Asia 94% of merchant GT delivered.

2024: CSSC ~14 million GT; all US yards 76,000 GT and five large ocean-going merchant vessels.

2024: world 60,213 tU; Kazakhstan 23,270 (39%); Canada 14,309 (24%); Namibia 7,333 (12%). ISL 52% of mine supply. Mines covered 90% of demand.

Kazatomprom 2025 production 25,839 tU (~40% of world). 2026 guidance 27,000–29,000 tU.

Amazon $200bn 2026 capex. Microsoft $190bn (April), including $25bn component prices; Visible Alpha $190.1bn. Alphabet top end lifted to $205bn. Meta Visible Alpha $138.9bn, company could reach $145bn.

Goldman: four firms $725bn capex in 2026, up 77% from $410bn in 2025. $5.3tn 2025–2030.

McDonald’s 66 campaigns in the Effective 100 database across 29 countries. Dove #2 brand, IKEA #3. Advertisers: Unilever, McDonald’s, AB InBev. Unilever is the first advertiser to rank #1 for creativity, media and effectiveness in the same year.

Mine production, nickel content, 2025e: world 3.90 Mt; Indonesia 2.60; Philippines 0.270; Russia 0.200; Canada 0.140; New Caledonia 0.140; China 0.120; Brazil 0.070; Australia 0.045 (was 0.098 in 2024, −54%). 2024 world 3.71; Indonesia 2.31. LME cash annual average −11% in 2025. Indonesia +13% as new operations ramped.

Mine production, cobalt content, 2025e: world 310,000 t; Congo (Kinshasa) 230,000; Indonesia 44,000; Russia 7,700. USGS share sentence: Congo 73%, Indonesia 14%. United States 300 t. 2024: world 302,000; Congo 226,000. LME cash $21/lb (2024), $15.48 (2025e).

World 1,849.4 Mt in 2025 (−2.0% vs 1,886.8). China 960.8 (−4.4%); India 164.9 (+10.4%); United States 82.0 (+3.1%); Japan 80.7 (−4.0%); Russia 67.8e; South Korea 61.9; Türkiye 38.1; Germany 34.1 (−8.6%); Brazil 33.3; Iran 31.8e.

2024 annual table (not 2025): China 1,005.1 Mt; India 149.4; Japan 84.0; United States 79.5; Russia 71.0. Used only as the prior-year column the January 2026 press revises.

Indonesia is the top nickel refiner. Indonesia (nickel) and China (other energy minerals) accounted for over three-quarters of refined-supply growth in 2023–25. In nickel, manganese and graphite, virtually all supply growth came from the dominant supplier. Average top-refiner share 72% in 2025 excluding rare earths, up from 70% in 2023.

Indonesia ‘now accounts for more than 60% of global nickel mine supply.’ A slogan. The USGS table is 2.6 of 3.9 (67%). Used as context for the quota talk, not as the share on the wall.

LBMA (PM) annual average 2025 $3,431.5/oz (+44% vs $2,386.2 in 2024). 53 record highs. Q4 average $4,135.2. Total demand 4,999.4 t; jewellery fabrication 1,638 t; bar and coin 1,374.1 t; ETFs 801.2 t; official 863.3 t.

LBMA (PM) annual average 2023 $1,940.5; 2024 $2,386.2 (+23%). Q4 2024 $2,663.4.

LBMA (PM) annual average 2022 $1,800.09; 2023 $1,940.54.

Q2 2026 LBMA average US$4,506.29/oz. Official-sector purchases 289 t. A quarterly average, not an annual print.

Calendar total returns. 2022: S&P −18.04%, 10-year Treasuries −17.83%, T-bills +2.09%, Baa −15.23%, gold +0.55%, real estate +5.65%. 2008: S&P −36.55%, 10-year +20.10%, gold +4.32%. 2025: S&P +17.78%, 10-year +7.80%, gold +66.22%.

Calendar 2022: S&P −18.1%, Bloomberg US Agg −13.1%, 60/40 −16.1%. Full-year average stock–bond correlation +0.15 vs long-term −0.24. 90-day window a 20-year high.

Post-2000 3-year rolling S&P vs 10-year average −0.18; peaked +0.67 in December 2024. 1970s average +0.24. 2022 described as stocks and bonds drawing down together, worst 60/40 calendar since 1937 on their telling.

US stock–bond correlation averaged +0.35 (1970–1999) and −0.29 (2000–2023).

2022: S&P −18.1% and 20-year Treasuries −26.1% produced a 20.3% 60/40 loss, second-worst after 1937 (−21%). Average corr. +0.35 (1970–1999), −0.31 (2000–2022).

Their 60/40 declined 25.1% in 2022 and recouped the prior high in June 2025. Different construction from the Damodaran splice and from Marquette’s S&P/Agg mix — not plotted on the same bar.

Month-end last: SPY Dec 2021 474.96 → Dec 2022 382.43. TLT 148.19 → 99.56. October 2022 TLT 96.11 is the monthly low on that grid. Price, not total return.

S&P 500 close-to-close declines of 20% or more, 1929–2024. As of 31 Mar 2025. Average −35% across 20% episodes. Cycle depths (1929 −86%, 2008 −57%) are a different ruler, used on our crash bubble.

28 Mar 2013 close 1,569.19, first close above 9 Oct 2007’s 1,565.15.

Same 28 Mar 2013 reclaim of the October 2007 high.

19 Jan 2024 reclaim of the 3 Jan 2022 peak after the 2022 bear.

18 Aug 2020 close above the 19 Feb 2020 peak of 3,386.15. Trough 2,237.40 on 23 Mar.

Dow 381.17 on 3 Sep 1929 to 41.22 on 8 Jul 1932 (−89%). Nominal high recouped 23 Nov 1954.

CAPE 41.93 on 2 Sep 2026. Record 44.19 in Dec 1999. Long-run mean 17.40.

January 1 prints used on the CAPE line: 2000 43.77; 2007 27.21; 2009 15.17; 2026 39.65.

Underlying CAPE series Multpl reprints.

Daily and month-end S&P 500. GFC month-end path on From the peak is indexed to Oct 2007 1,549.38. COVID path indexed to Jan 2020 3,225.52.

8 Apr 2025 close 4,982.77. Peak 6,144.15 on 19 Feb 2025 is −18.9%. Not a 20% bear close.

Confirms the 8 Apr 2025 S&P close of 4,982.77. Recoup of the Feb high by 27 Jun 2025.

Only five calendar years 1928–2022 had stocks and 10-year Treasuries both negative; only 2022 had both worse than −10%. 2022 inflation 6.42%; real 10-year −22.79%. The T-bond year was the worst annual return, nominal and real, in 1928–2022 on his table.

Ibbotson/Bloomberg Agg splice: only two calendar years with stocks and bonds both down, 1931 and 1969 (near-miss 2018). A different bond than Damodaran’s 10-year — 1941 and 2018 appear on Damodaran, not as Callan crash years. Not plotted on the Damodaran rank.