Markets desk · Crash study · Issue 02
Live desk2022 is the year stocks and 10-year Treasuries both printed −18%. 2008 is the year the 40% paid. CAPE 42 is a multiple, not a date. Every figure is Damodaran, Hartford, Shiller or a named close — not a slogan.
New · Markets · Correlation · Markets
Each bubble is a calendar year. X is Damodaran’s S&P total return. Y is his 10-year Treasury. Size is gold. 2008 is the upper-left hedge. 2022 sits on the 45-degree line, both down 18%.
−18.0 / −17.8
S&P and 10-year Treasuries, 2022
Open full storyCorrelation · Signed bubbles
X and Y can go negative. 2022 sits on the 45-degree line. 2008 sits in the upper-left. Size is the third series, labelled on each wall.
New · Markets · Correlation · Markets
X is Damodaran’s S&P calendar return. Y is 60% that S&P and 40% his 10-year. The dashed line is Y = X: the mix is the stock. 2008 sits far above it. 2022 sits on it.
0.08 pt
2022 60/40 vs 100% S&P
Open full storyNew · Markets · Correlation · Markets
X is Damodaran’s S&P. Y is his gold. 1973–74 sit in the upper-left, +73% then +66% while stocks fell. 2022 is −18% equities and +0.55% gold — a hedge that did not show up. 2025’s +66% is a bull year, not a crash.
+0.55%
Gold, Damodaran, calendar 2022
Open full storyNew · Markets · Correlation · Markets
X is Damodaran’s 2008 calendar return. Y is 2022. Size is how far the job changed. Treasuries are the outlier: +20% in the GFC, −18% in the rate shock. The S&P just fell twice.
+20 → −18
10-year Treasuries, 2008 then 2022
Open full storyNew · Markets · The hall · Markets
S&P 500 price, peak to trough versus months from the low back to the old high. 1929 is a different animal. 2020 is the other exception: −34% and whole in five months. 2022 was −25% and fifteen. There is no 2026 crash on this wall.
5 mo
2020: trough to prior peak (price)
Open full storyCrash study
Peak-to-trough, months back to the old high, the 60/40 rank, SPY versus TLT, CAPE at the start. Two rulers: cycle depth, and Hartford’s 20% census. We do not mix them on one bar.
New · Markets · Issue 02 · Markets
−18.0%
60/40 in 2022, Damodaran splice
Open full storyNew · Markets · Correlation · Markets
Same Damodaran splice: 0.4 × (10-year − S&P). 2008 the mix beat 100% equities by 22.7 points. 2022 by 0.1. The milder equity year was the worse product. Ranked smallest first.
0.1 pp
60/40 vs 100% S&P, 2022
Open full storyTwelve months when the 40% fell with the 60%
TLT in Oct 2022, Dec 2021 = 100
65
Index each crash to 100. 2020 is a V. 2008 is a hole. 2022 is a grind.
GFC, Feb 2009 month-end, peak = 100
47
Minus 86, then 57, then 49. The modern crash is not 1929.
GFC, 9 Oct 2007 – 9 Mar 2009
−56.8%
Five months, or twenty-two years
2009 low to 28 Mar 2013 high
48 mo
CAPE is 42. It has only been higher once.
Shiller CAPE, 2 Sep 2026 (Multpl)
41.93
The crash from CAPE 27 was deeper than the one from 44
Jan 2007 CAPE, then GFC depth
27 → 57%
The rest of the desk
The $348 trillion ledger
Global debt stock, end-2025 (IIF)
$348 tn
Hard money, soft reserves
Official gold holdings, 2025 (IMF)
$4.5 tn
India’s decade, China’s middle age
India calendar-year growth, 2026 (IMF)
~7%
Seven names, a third of the S&P
Magnificent 7 share of the S&P 500, Aug 2026
33.9%
A quieter catastrophe year is not a safer planet
Insured nat-cat losses, 2025
$107bn
One and a half billion journeys
International tourist arrivals, 2025
1.52bn
The dollar is slipping, not falling
US dollar share of allocated FX reserves, 2026Q1
57.1%
Ships are taking the long way round
Seaborne tonne-miles, 2024
+6%
Seven companies, larger than China
Magnificent 7 market cap, Aug 2026
$23.7tn
A $126 trillion machine
World GDP, IMF April 2026
$126tn
Interest now costs more than the Pentagon
US net interest, FY2025 (CBO)
$970bn
Workers send more money than investors or donors
Remittances to LMICs, 2024
$685bn
A thousand tonnes a year, on purpose
Official-sector gold buying, 2025
863 t
Japan’s 10-year just cleared 3%
Japan 10-year yield, early Sep 2026
3.0%
Seven years as the most effective brand. Not a ROAS table.
Years McDonald’s at #1, WARC Effective 100 brand
7
Gold’s year averaged $3,431. Two years earlier it was $1,800.
LBMA annual average, 2025 (WGC)
$3,431
Theme
Depth, wait, correlation, and the starting multiple. Size for 2008’s hole and for 2022’s lower-left quadrant. Do not underwrite 2020. Do not date a crash from CAPE 42.
Open the theme →Educational data journalism. Not investment advice. Compare any two modules on the compare desk, or read how we check numbers in methodology.