Energy · The hall
The cheapest electron in history
Utility-scale solar now costs $44 per megawatt-hour. In 2010 it was about $445. That is a 90% collapse in fourteen years — the steepest learning curve of any energy technology we have a number for.
- Solar PV
- Onshore wind
- Solar PV LCOE, 2025 (IRENA)
- $44
- Since 2010
- −90%
- Onshore wind LCOE, 2025
- $33
- Of new renewables cheaper than new fossil, 2024
- 91%
A ninety-percent off sticker
IRENA’s July 2026 cost report is the print: utility-scale solar’s global weighted-average LCOE is $44/MWh, unchanged from 2024. Onshore wind is $33. Offshore $78. The 2024 vintage said solar had fallen 90% since 2010, when a megawatt-hour cost on the order of $445. Ninety-one percent of new utility-scale renewable capacity in 2024 undercut the cheapest new fossil plant. This is Wright’s law in public: every doubling of cumulative solar has taken about 20% off the price. The curve is now flattening. The collapse already happened.
Cheap generation, expensive wires
Pair this with 2,500 gigawatts waiting for a wire and The century-long reign of coal is ending. The module is no longer the scarce object. The substation is. A $44 electron that cannot interconnect is a spreadsheet. The investing error of the 2010s was to ignore solar. The investing error of the late 2020s is to own only solar. Transformers, copper, batteries at $108/kWh, and the permission to plug in — those are where $44 electricity becomes a system.
The long view is a commodity with a queue
Once a technology is 90% cheaper, it is a commodity. Manufacturers without a cost or offtake edge get crushed; the owners of scarce complements collect. China made that commodity. Everyone else has to live in a world where electrons are cheap and bays are not. Size ‘more solar’ as a volume bet. Size the grid as the rent.
Investing lens
Horizon 5–15 years · Educational, not advice
The learning curve has delivered. Own the complements — storage, copper, transformers, interconnects — not another undifferentiated module.
Where the map points
- Grid kit and interconnection-advantaged utilities
- Stationary storage now that packs are $70/kWh
- Selective solar manufacturers with a cost floor
- Avoid merchant PV with no queue position
What can break it
- Trade barriers that re-inflate local LCOE
- A weather year that embarrasses variable generation
- Oversupply that lasts longer than the model
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryIRENA2026-07Renewable power generation costs in 2025
Solar PV LCOE USD 44/MWh in 2025, unchanged from 2024. Onshore wind $33/MWh, offshore $78/MWh.
- 02PrimaryIRENA2025-07Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024
Solar PV LCOE $0.043/kWh in 2024, a 90% reduction since 2010. Onshore wind $0.034/kWh (−70%). 91% of new utility-scale renewables cheaper than the cheapest new fossil alternative.
- 03PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2026Electricity 2026 — Executive summary
More than 2,500 GW of projects stalled in grid queues (renewables, storage, large loads). Grid investment ~$400bn/yr; +50% needed by 2030. Global electricity demand +3% in 2025; +3.6%/yr 2026–2030.
Keep reading
The century-long reign of coal is ending
In 2025, renewable electricity generated more power than coal for the first time in the modern era. Solar did most of the work.
33.8%
Renewables share of world electricity, 2025
2,500 gigawatts waiting for a wire
The IEA’s 2026 electricity report puts more than 2,500 GW of projects — renewables, batteries, data centres — in grid connection queues. The world spends $400 billion a year on grids and $1 trillion on generation. That is the distribution bottleneck.
2,500 GW
Projects stalled in grid queues, 2026
A battery for $108
BloombergNEF’s 2025 survey: lithium-ion packs at $108/kWh, 93% below 2010. Stationary storage packs hit $70. This is the other learning curve, and it is why batteries ate the peak-gas plant.
$108
Li-ion pack price per kWh, 2025