Markets · Issue 02
A thousand tonnes a year, on purpose
Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. That is a ‘slow’ year. 2022–24 each cleared 1,000 tonnes. The pre-2022 average was about 470. This is the official sector rewiring the reserve stack.
- Official-sector gold buying, 2025
- 863 t
- 2024, the third 1,000-tonne year
- 1,092 t
- 2010–2021 annual average
- 473 t
- Q2 2026 net buying
- 289 t
A slow year that is still a regime
The World Gold Council’s full-year 2025 print is 863 tonnes of net official buying — down 21% from 1,092 tonnes in 2024, and the first miss of the 1,000-tonne mark since 2021. It is still almost double the 2010–2021 average of 473 tonnes. The 2026 survey’s sentence is the thesis: central banks have accumulated about 1,000 tonnes a year for four years, against 500 tonnes a year the decade before. Q2 2026 came back hard at 289 tonnes after a soft first quarter. Poland, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan — the cast does not rotate much. The bid is a policy, not a trade.
Tonnes are not the $4.5 trillion
Pair this with Hard money, soft reserves. Most of the mark-up in official gold is price. This chart is the other half: the physical bid that started when a nuclear-armed state’s dollar reserves were immobilised in 2022. Valuation can reverse in a year. A thousand-tonne habit reverses on a committee timetable. Index this series against 2015 and the post-2022 step is a different animal from jewellery.
The long view is a reserve that cannot be frozen
Gold is what you hold when you have watched another state’s reserves stop working. Bitcoin is what a citizen holds when they do not trust the state. Only one of those is on this chart. Own allocated metal as insurance sized to survive a $1,000 drawdown. Do not own a 2026 ‘central banks must buy 1,000 tonnes’ coupon. 863 already proved they will not, on schedule.
Investing lens
Horizon 5–15 years · Educational, not advice
The official bid doubled and then held. Hold bullion as reserve-fragmentation insurance. Do not underwrite a 1,000-tonne calendar.
Where the map points
- Allocated bullion or physically backed low-fee gold
- A smaller bitcoin sleeve for convexity, if the mandate allows
- Miners as high-beta, not as the thesis
- Nothing that needs 1,000 tonnes every year
What can break it
- A real-rate shock
- A year like 2020 (255 t) after a spike
- Confusing price-driven reserve shares with tonnes
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryWorld Gold Council2026-01-29Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2025 — Central banks
Official-sector net purchases 863 tonnes in 2025, after 1,092 t in 2024. 2010–2021 annual average 473 t. 2022–24 each above 1,000 t.
- 02CorroboratedWorld Gold Council2026-06-16Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026
Central banks accumulated an average of 1,000 t a year over the past four years, vs ~500 t over the preceding decade.
- 03PrimaryWorld Gold Council2026-07-30Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Central banks
Net official-sector purchases 289 tonnes in Q2 2026.
- 04CorroboratedInternational Monetary Fund2026-07Gold in Central Bank Reserves
Official gold holdings ~$4.5 trillion by 2025; share of reserves from 10% (2019) to over 22% (Aug 2025), mostly valuation.
Keep reading
Hard money, soft reserves
Central banks have been buying on the order of 1,000 tonnes of gold a year. Valuation, not tonnes, did most of the $3 trillion mark-up.
$4.5 tn
Official gold holdings, 2025 (IMF)
The dollar is slipping, not falling
The US dollar’s share of official FX reserves is 57.1%. It was 65% a decade ago. Gold has stolen the headlines; the euro is still 20%. This is diversification at glacial speed.
57.1%
US dollar share of allocated FX reserves, 2026Q1
Interest now costs more than the Pentagon
In fiscal 2025 the United States paid $970 billion in net interest on the public debt. Defence cost $893 billion. The bond market is now a larger federal programme than the armed forces.
$970bn
US net interest, FY2025 (CBO)