Resources · Issue 02
Lithium grew ninefold. The price did not.
USGS: world lithium mine production reached about 290,000 tonnes of lithium content in 2025. In 2016 it was 38,000. Supply did the energy-transition homework. The price did the opposite.
- World lithium mine output, 2025
- 290 kt
- 2016
- 38 kt
- Lithium price, 2025 (USGS)
- −24%
- IEA demand to 2040, STEPS
- 5×
The mine did show up
The USGS 2026 summaries are the print: about 290,000 tonnes of lithium content mined in 2025, against 38,000 in 2016. That is a ninefold lift in nine years. Australia’s hard rock, Chile’s brines, Argentina’s, China’s. The IEA still sees lithium demand fivefold to 2040 under stated policies. The 2020s already did a version of that on the supply side. The price, in the same USGS wrap, fell 24% in 2025. This is what a bottleneck looks like after the bottleneck is a warehouse.
Do not confuse three lithiums
Mined tonnes are not battery-grade carbonate, and they are not the refined chemicals that sit in China. Pair this with The copper bind and A battery for $108. Copper is still a mine-and-permit story. Lithium in 2025 is a surplus story with a 2030s tightness option. Rare earths are a refinery-policy story. Treating them as one ‘critical minerals’ ETF is how you buy the wrong shortage.
The long view is a 2030s market bought in a 2025 glut
If EVs and storage keep compounding, 290 kt will look small. If sodium-ion and LFP chemistry keep substituting, 290 kt will look like 2018 cobalt. Own long-life, low-cost tonnes with a balance sheet that survives $10,000 carbonate. Do not own a 2022 price in a 2026 income statement.
Investing lens
Horizon 5–12 years · Educational, not advice
Lithium is a surplus with a 2030s call option. Own low-cost tonnes, not the 2022 tape. Keep copper and magnet midstream in a different sleeve.
Where the map points
- Tier-one hard-rock and brine with all-in costs that work in a glut
- Refining outside China, sized as policy optionality
- Copper and grid metals as the tighter 2020s bind
- Avoid a single ‘critical minerals’ blob
What can break it
- Further oversupply from Australian and African tonnes
- Sodium-ion and chemistry substitution
- Resource nationalism on the brines
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryU.S. Geological Survey2026-02Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026
US remains import-reliant on China for a long list of critical minerals, including rare earths, graphite, gallium.
- 02PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2025-05Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Copper implied 30% supply shortfall by 2035; lithium fivefold demand growth to 2040 in STEPS.
- 03PrimaryBloombergNEF2025-12-09Lithium-ion battery pack prices fall to $108/kWh
Volume-weighted average pack $108/kWh in 2025, −8% y/y, 93% below 2010. Stationary storage packs $70/kWh (−45%). China average $84/kWh. LFP $81, NMC $128.
Keep reading
Seventy-one thousand dollars a tonne, then nine
USGS: US lithium carbonate averaged $71,100 a tonne in 2023 and $9,000 in 2025. The same mine complex that was a 2022 miracle is a 2026 balance-sheet test. Production went ninefold. Price did the opposite.
−87%
US lithium carbonate, 2023 to 2025 (USGS)
The copper bind
Electrification, grids and data centres all drink copper. The IEA’s 2025 outlook still sees a 30% mined-supply gap by 2035.
30%
Implied copper supply shortfall by 2035
A battery for $108
BloombergNEF’s 2025 survey: lithium-ion packs at $108/kWh, 93% below 2010. Stationary storage packs hit $70. This is the other learning curve, and it is why batteries ate the peak-gas plant.
$108
Li-ion pack price per kWh, 2025
China still refines the transition
The IEA’s last minerals outlook was unambiguous: concentration at the refinery rose, not fell. China is the dominant processor of 19 of 20 strategic minerals.
70%
China’s average share of refined supply, 20 minerals
One in four new cars is now electric
The IEA counted 21 million electric cars in 2025. China already sells more EVs than ICE. America is the holdout.
25%
World new-car sales that were electric, 2025