Technology · Issue 01
Five firms, more than the oilfield
The largest technology companies spent more than $400 billion of capex in 2025. The IEA expects another 75% jump in 2026. That is more than the world spends drilling oil and gas. Distribution of intelligence is a capital-stock event.
- Large tech capex
- World grid investment
- Big-tech capex, 2025 (IEA)
- $400bn+
- IEA’s 2026 jump
- +75%
- AI-factory capacity in 18 months
- ×3
- World grid spend, same year
- $400bn
The crossing that matters
IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI: the largest technology companies’ capital expenditure exceeded $400 billion in 2025 and is expected to jump another 75% in 2026. ‘Capital expenditure of just five technology companies is now larger than global investment in oil and natural gas production.’ In the same year the world spent about $400 billion on electricity grids. 2025 is the crossing: five balance sheets outspent the grid, and are about to outspend it by a wider margin. The IEA’s satellites show AI factories more than tripling in 18 months. This is not software. It is yards of concrete, rows of HBM, and a substation.
A 75% jump is a rationing signal
A 75% year on year increase in already-gargantuan capex is what a shortage looks like from the demand side. Pair this with The $1.5 trillion bottleneck, The power behind intelligence and 2,500 gigawatts waiting for a wire. Chips, watts and interconnects are three names for one constraint. The Mag 7 at a third of the S&P is the equity expression of the same five cheques. If 2026 lands near $700 billion, the question is not ‘is AI real’. It is ‘who collects the rent on the physical stack, and who is left holding a model’.
The long view is depreciation
Capex this size becomes depreciation, power contracts and stranded shells if the useful life of a training cluster is three years. The investing discipline is to own the things the $700 billion must buy — power, memory, foundry, transformers, land with a queue position — and to size the five spenders as a known concentration, not as a gift. A pause would be a cycle. The 2025–26 prints are a regime.
Investing lens
Horizon 3–8 years · Educational, not advice
Five firms are now an energy-and-grid buyer of last resort. Own the physical stack they must purchase. Do not confuse their capex guide with a permanent 75% growth rate.
Where the map points
- HBM, foundry, advanced packaging
- Power, transformers, interconnection-advantaged land
- The five themselves, sized as concentration
- A pause sleeve: this run-rate can gap down
What can break it
- A hyperscaler capex reset
- Three-year useful lives that wreck ROIC
- Grid queues that turn capex into idle shells
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2026Key Questions on Energy and AI — Executive summary
Largest tech companies’ capex exceeded $400bn in 2025, expected to jump another 75% in 2026. Five firms now spend more than global oil and gas production investment. AI factories more than tripled in 18 months.
- 02PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2025World Energy Investment 2025 — Executive summary
Energy investment $3.3tn in 2025. Electricity sector $1.5tn. Grids ~$400bn vs ~$1tn on generation. Clean $2.2tn vs fossil $1.1tn.
- 03PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2026Electricity 2026 — Executive summary
More than 2,500 GW of projects stalled in grid queues (renewables, storage, large loads). Grid investment ~$400bn/yr; +50% needed by 2030. Global electricity demand +3% in 2025; +3.6%/yr 2026–2030.
- 04PrimaryWorld Semiconductor Trade Statistics2026Spring 2026 semiconductor market forecast
2026 market projected at $1.51 trillion, +90%; memory >$800 billion.
Keep reading
Seven names, a third of the S&P
Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla were 34% of the S&P 500 in August 2026 — about $24 trillion in one corridor of the market.
33.9%
Magnificent 7 share of the S&P 500, Aug 2026
The power behind intelligence
Data centres used 485 TWh in 2025. The IEA’s base case still nearly doubles that by 2030 — and AI sites are growing three times as fast as the rest.
485 TWh
Data-centre electricity, 2025
The chip supercycle
Semiconductors did $792 billion in 2025. WSTS’s spring 2026 forecast put 2026 at $1.51 trillion — a 90% leap, almost all memory and AI.
$1.51 tn
WSTS spring-2026 forecast for 2026 sales
2,500 gigawatts waiting for a wire
The IEA’s 2026 electricity report puts more than 2,500 GW of projects — renewables, batteries, data centres — in grid connection queues. The world spends $400 billion a year on grids and $1 trillion on generation. That is the distribution bottleneck.
2,500 GW
Projects stalled in grid queues, 2026