Energy · Issue 01
One in four new cars is now electric
The IEA counted 21 million electric cars in 2025. China already sells more EVs than ICE. America is the holdout.
- China
- Europe
- United States
- Rest of world
- World new-car sales that were electric, 2025
- 25%
- Electric cars sold, 2025
- 21m
- Of those, sold in China
- 13m
- IEA 2026 sales path
- 23m
The crossover is regional, not global
The IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026 is the print to use: more than 20 million electric cars sold in 2025, one in four of every new car on Earth, and a 2026 path of 23 million (28% of sales). GEO Trends is more precise on the geography: China 13 million, Europe 4.2 million, the United States about 1.5 million, the rest of the world 2 million. Add those and you get the 21 million in the Global Energy Review. The world average is a China story with a European second act. It is not an American story.
China is already on the other side
Electric cars were nearly 55% of all cars sold in China in 2025 — the first year they were more than half — and the IEA has them approaching 60% in 2026. Chinese automakers supplied 60% of global EV sales; Chinese factories produced 16 million of the 22 million EVs built. Exports doubled to more than 2.5 million. This is what a completed industrial policy looks like: the domestic market is the test track, the rest of the world is the overflow. The investing implication is rude. Incumbents that still treat China as a ‘market to enter’ are competing with the producer of three-quarters of the world’s electric cars.
Europe re-accelerated. America paused.
Europe had stagnated in 2024. Tighter EU CO₂ standards produced a 30% jump, to 28% of sales. The United States went the other way: full-year sales held around 10%, then the tax credit ended in September 2025 and fourth-quarter sales fell 45% year-on-year. Policy is not a footnote in this chart. It is the difference between 28% and 10%. Emerging markets are the sleeper: Southeast Asia nearly 20% of sales, Latin America +75%, Chinese brands supplying 55% of electric cars sold outside Europe and the US, up from under 5% five years earlier.
Oil feels this as a stock, not a flow
The global EV fleet displaced about 1.7 million barrels a day in 2025, of which China was about 1 mb/d. The IEA’s current-policy path triples that to ~5 mb/d by 2030. ICE car sales, in the same outlook, never reclaim their 2017 peak. That is the long view: a slow bleed in gasoline, a fast build in batteries, copper and charging, and a car industry that has split into a Chinese cost curve and everyone else’s political response.
Investing lens
Horizon 5–12 years · Educational, not advice
Own the cost curve (Chinese and China-exposed OEMs, LFP batteries, charging in dense cities) and the scarce complements (grid, copper, transformers). Treat Western volume-growth stories as policy options, not as a 2021 exponential.
Where the map points
- Battery and cathode names on the LFP cost curve
- Charging and depot electrification where utilisation is real
- Copper and grid equipment as EV + data-centre coincidence
- Avoid assuming US fleet conversion from a 10% sales share
What can break it
- Trade barriers that strand Chinese capacity and raise Western sticker prices
- A US policy freeze that lasts a full product cycle
- Battery-metal oversupply that looks like demand failure
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2026-05-20Global EV Outlook 2026 — Executive summary
Electric car sales >20 million in 2025 (one in four new cars). 2026 forecast 23 million, 28% of sales. Chinese automakers 60% of global EV sales.
- 02PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2026-05Trends in electric cars — Global EV Outlook 2026
China 13 million EV sales; Europe 4.2 million (28%); US ~1.5 million (~10%); rest of world 2 million.
- 03CorroboratedInternational Energy Agency2026Technology: Electric vehicles — Global Energy Review 2026
21 million electric cars sold in 2025, +20%. China more than half of all car sales electric.
Keep reading
The century-long reign of coal is ending
In 2025, renewable electricity generated more power than coal for the first time in the modern era. Solar did most of the work.
33.8%
Renewables share of world electricity, 2025
The copper bind
Electrification, grids and data centres all drink copper. The IEA’s 2025 outlook still sees a 30% mined-supply gap by 2035.
30%
Implied copper supply shortfall by 2035
Batteries now outbuild the gas turbine
The world added 108 GW of batteries in 2025 — more new capacity than gas plants managed in their best year. China installed most of it.
108 GW
Battery storage added in 2025
China still refines the transition
The IEA’s last minerals outlook was unambiguous: concentration at the refinery rose, not fell. China is the dominant processor of 19 of 20 strategic minerals.
70%
China’s average share of refined supply, 20 minerals