Resources · Issue 01
China still refines the transition
The IEA’s last minerals outlook was unambiguous: concentration at the refinery rose, not fell. China is the dominant processor of 19 of 20 strategic minerals.
- 01GalliumUSGS / IEA9898%
- 02Graphite (battery)IEA 20259595%
- 03Rare earthsrefined9090%
- 04Cobaltrefined7575%
- 05Lithiumrefined6565%
- 06Copperrefined4242%
- 07Nickelrefined; Indonesia mines3535%
- China’s average share of refined supply, 20 minerals
- 70%
- Minerals where China is the top refiner
- 19 / 20
- Graphite and rare earths, refined
- ~90%
- Top-three refiner share, energy minerals, 2024
- 86%
Mines are not the choke. Smelters are.
The IEA’s 2025 minerals outlook is the document governments keep quoting and not acting on. Between 2020 and 2024 the top-three refining nations’ share of copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths rose from about 82% to 86%. Almost all the extra refined tonnes came from one country: Indonesia for nickel, China for the rest. China is the dominant refiner for 19 of the 20 strategic minerals the IEA lined up, at an average share around 70%. USGS’s 2026 commodity summaries still have the United States 100% import-reliant on a shameful list, with China at the other end of the gangway.
2035 does not save you
On announced projects, the IEA does not see a great diversification. By 2035 China is still more than 60% of refined lithium and cobalt, and around 80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earths. Two-thirds of battery-recycling capacity growth since 2020 has also been in China. Friend-shoring is a speech. A refinery is a permit, a reagent, a skilled workforce and a willingness to host the waste. Those do not travel at the speed of a communiqué.
Copper was the first chart. This is the rest of the bill of materials.
The copper bind is about tonnes and grade. This chart is about a single jurisdiction sitting on the chemical step between ore and magnet, cathode, wafer. EVs, wind turbines, drones and the chips in The $1.5 trillion bottleneck all pass through some row of this ranking. The long view is not ‘decouple in a term’. It is: pay up for the few non-Chinese midstream projects that actually pour, and stop confusing a lithium brine announcement with a magnet plant.
Investing lens
Horizon 7–20 years · Educational, not advice
The scarce asset is permitted midstream outside China, plus the copper and magnet names that already operate. Mining equity without a path to refined product is a different, more cyclical bet.
Where the map points
- Rare-earth and magnet projects with a real separator, not a resource estimate
- Copper as before — brownfield, licensed, long reserve life
- Battery recycling in OECD jurisdictions, sized to actual scrap, not to a slide
- Avoid treating a US grant announcement as a tonne of output
What can break it
- China can still oversupply and punish new midstream on price
- Environmental opposition to refineries in the countries that want ‘independence’
- Substitution (sodium-ion, ferrite magnets) that hits the wrong mineral
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2025-05Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Copper implied 30% supply shortfall by 2035; lithium fivefold demand growth to 2040 in STEPS.
- 02CorroboratedInternational Energy Agency2025-05Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 — Executive summary
Lithium demand +~30% in 2024. LFP near half of EV battery market. China dominant refiner for 19 of 20 minerals, ~70% average share.
- 03PrimaryU.S. Geological Survey2026-02Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026
US remains import-reliant on China for a long list of critical minerals, including rare earths, graphite, gallium.
Keep reading
The copper bind
Electrification, grids and data centres all drink copper. The IEA’s 2025 outlook still sees a 30% mined-supply gap by 2035.
30%
Implied copper supply shortfall by 2035
One in four new cars is now electric
The IEA counted 21 million electric cars in 2025. China already sells more EVs than ICE. America is the holdout.
25%
World new-car sales that were electric, 2025
The rearmament decade
World military spending hit $2.89 trillion in 2025. America spent less. Europe and Asia spent enough more to keep the global total rising.
$2.89 tn
World military expenditure, 2025
The chip supercycle
Semiconductors did $792 billion in 2025. WSTS’s spring 2026 forecast put 2026 at $1.51 trillion — a 90% leap, almost all memory and AI.
$1.51 tn
WSTS spring-2026 forecast for 2026 sales