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793 million tonnes already. 53 is one year.
USGS/OWID mine production, summed year by year: 793 million tonnes, 1900–2022. ICSG: 396 million in 2000–2022 alone. S&P’s 53 million-tonne 2050 year is 7% of the century, not more than it. The slogan compared a year to a sum.
- 01S&P 2022 path, 2023–2050 (trapezoid)in-house from 25 / 50 / 53 anchors1,285
- 02Mined, 1900–2022USGS/OWID year-by-year sum793
- 03USGS FAQ ‘produced to date’stale public cube, ~430 m on a side700
- 04Mined, 2000–2022ICSG print396
- 05One year, S&P 2022, 2050the viral number53
- 06One year, ICSG usage, 2025a print, not a scenario28.2
- 53 Mt vs 793 Mt mined, 1900–2022
- 7%
- Mt mined, 1900–2022 (USGS/OWID sum)
- 793
- Mt mined, 2000–2022 (ICSG print)
- 396
- Mt, S&P 2022, one year in 2050
- 53
The trick is a year standing next to a century
S&P Global, 14 July 2022: ‘53 million metric tons in 2050 — more than all the copper consumed in the world between 1900 and 2021.’ The em-dash attaches a 122-year sum to a single year’s demand. USGS/BGS mine production, added up year by year through Our World in Data, is 793 million tonnes from 1900 through 2022. ICSG, independently: 396 million tonnes mined in 2000–2022. Fifty-three is 7% of 793, and 13% of the twenty-first century’s first twenty-two years. It is not greater than either. Two years of current use (28.2 million tonnes in 2025) already beat 53. The poster copied the slogan onto a USGS source line. USGS did not write it.
The charitable reading is a different sentence
If the claim had been ‘copper used between 2023 and 2050 on this net-zero path exceeds copper used between 1900 and 2022,’ the arithmetic could work. A trapezoid on S&P’s own 25 / 50 / 53 anchors sums to about 1,285 million tonnes over 2023–2050 — above 793. That is a cumulative-versus-cumulative sentence. It is not the sentence on the poster, and it is not the sentence in the 2022 press release. We print the trapezoid so the honest version is visible, and we label it in-house. S&P has not published that integral. S&P’s 2026 study no longer leads with 53 at all.
The long view is still a tight mine
None of this makes copper abundant. IEA still sees a 30% mined-supply gap by 2035. Ore grades fall. Permits take a decade. Scrap is the swing. Own the tonnes and the scrap. Do not own a chart that asks 53 to do the work of 793. What would change this page: a published S&P (or USGS, or ICSG) cumulative 1900–2021 below 53 million tonnes. That document does not exist.
Investing lens
Horizon 8–20 years · Educational, not advice
The scarcity is the mine pipeline, not a century that somehow contained less copper than one future year. Size positions to IEA-class demand and a slow supply curve. Fade slogans that fail a running total.
Where the map points
- Permitted copper with brownfield expansion
- Scrap and secondary refined into electrical grades
- Avoid a trade that only works if 53 > 793
What can break it
- A 50-plus 2050 path (BHP, WoodMac, S&P 2022) landing as a flow, even if the slogan is wrong
- Demand destruction if the grid and the car slip together
- Confusing mine, refined usage, and cumulative stocks still in use
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryInternational Copper Study Group2023-11-28Long Term Availability of Copper
396 million tonnes mined 2000–2022. Reserves grew 457 Mt to ~890 Mt over the same window.
- 02PrimaryInternational Copper Study Group2025-10World Copper Factbook 2025
Apparent refined usage from <500 kt (1900) to 27.4 Mt (2024); long-run CAGR 3.3%. The 1900–2024 usage chart is the template the viral infographic copies.
- 03ContextualU.S. Geological SurveystaleHow much copper has been found in the world?
FAQ: roughly 700 million metric tons produced to date (a cube ~430 m on a side). Behind a year-by-year USGS/OWID sum of 793 Mt mined 1900–2022.
- 04PrimaryU.S. Geological Survey2026-02Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 — Copper
World mine 23,000 kt (2024 and 2025e). World refinery production 27,600 kt (2024), 29,000 kt (2025e). World reserves ~980 Mt. MCS is mine + refinery, not a 1900–2050 consumption chart and not a 53 Mt forecast.
- 05PrimaryS&P Global2022-07-14The Future of Copper — press release
Net-zero Multitech Mitigation: refined demand ~25 Mt (2021) → ~50 Mt (2035) → 53 Mt (2050). The 53 Mt clause is written as greater than all copper consumed 1900–2021 — an annual-vs-cumulative slogan, not a USGS print.
- 06PrimaryS&P Global2026-01-08Copper in the Age of AI
S&P’s current path: 28 Mt (2025) → 42 Mt (2040). Recycled scrap more than doubles toward 10 Mt. No 53 Mt 2050 figure. This is the update of the 2022 study.
- 07PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2025-05Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Copper implied 30% supply shortfall by 2035; lithium fivefold demand growth to 2040 in STEPS.
Keep reading
53 million tonnes is a 2022 scenario, not USGS
ICSG refined usage: 15.1 Mt in 2000, 25.9 in 2022, 28.2 in 2025. IEA STEPS reaches 37.5 Mt in 2050. S&P’s 2022 net-zero path went to 53. S&P’s own 2026 update stops at 42 in 2040. The viral chart is not a year-table.
37.5
IEA STEPS copper demand, 2050 (Mt)
Ten million tonnes of scrap is the other mine
World refined copper in 2024 was 27.5 million tonnes: 22.8 from the ground, 4.7 from scrap. S&P 2026 has secondary more than doubling toward 10 million by 2040. The 53-million-tonne poster never drew this line.
10
Mt secondary refined, S&P 2026, 2040 path
The copper bind
Electrification, grids and data centres all drink copper. The IEA’s 2025 outlook still sees a 30% mined-supply gap by 2035.
30%
Implied copper supply shortfall by 2035
Forty-eight thousand, not seventeen
USGS last counted 48,525 billion gallons a year of thermoelectric withdrawals and 43,118 of irrigation. California almonds, on our reconstruction, are 1,355. US data-centre on-site water in 2023 was 17.4. The attached chart is true. It is also not the ledger.
0.04%
US data-centre on-site vs US irrigation