Resources · Issue 02
Ten million tonnes of scrap is the other mine
World refined copper in 2024 was 27.5 million tonnes: 22.8 from the ground, 4.7 from scrap. S&P 2026 has secondary more than doubling toward 10 million by 2040. The 53-million-tonne poster never drew this line.
- Primary refined
- Secondary refined (scrap)
- Mt secondary refined, S&P 2026, 2040 path
- 10
- Mt secondary, 2024 (NRCAN / ICSG)
- 4.7
- Mt primary refined, 2024
- 22.8
- Scrap share of refined output, 2024
- 17%
The quiet 17%
Every copper shortage essay starts at the pit. NRCAN’s 2024 wrap of ICSG starts at the refinery: 27.5 million tonnes of refined metal, of which 4.7 million never saw a 2024 mine. That is 17%. IEA’s 2025 outlook says recycling can cut new-mine need for copper by about 35% by 2050 under stated policies. S&P 2026 is blunter: scrap more than doubles, toward 10 million tonnes a year by 2040, on a 42 million-tonne demand path. Ten million tonnes of secondary is a Chuquicamata that does not need a permit. It does need collection, a smelter that will take the scrap, and a grid spec that accepts it.
Primary still has to rise
Even on that 10-million-tonne scrap path, primary refined has to go from 23-class to about 32 to meet S&P’s 42. IEA STEPS is kinder to the mine and meaner to scrap (secondary 8.7 in 2040). Either way the rock still moves. The 53-million-tonne poster, drawn as a single brown spike, hides the split. A magazine that only owns miners will miss the scrap. A magazine that only owns scrap will miss a 30% mined-supply gap. Pair with The copper bind.
The long view is a loop and a hole
Own secondary capacity tied to electrical-grade cathode, and the miners who still have to fill the primary residual. Do not own a 2040 10-million-tonne scrap coupon as if collection rates were a law of physics. Urban mines leak. What would change this page: ICSG secondary refined clearing 8 million tonnes before 2030, or S&P taking scrap back below 7 in a later study.
Investing lens
Horizon 6–15 years · Educational, not advice
Scrap is the elastic tonne. Primary is the inelastic one. A copper book that is only pits is a 2010s book. A copper book that is only scrap is a hope. Hold both, sized to IEA-class demand, not to 53.
Where the map points
- Secondary smelters and refiners with electrical-grade output
- Collection and e-waste into cathode
- Primary copper with a reserve life that survives a 10-Mt scrap world
- Avoid treating 10 Mt of 2040 scrap as a 2026 print
What can break it
- Collection rates that do not double when the model says they do
- A scrap-quality ceiling on grid and data-centre specs
- Primary overbuild if scrap does land
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01CorroboratedNatural Resources Canada2026-01-05Copper facts
ICSG-based: world refined production 26.5 Mt (2023), 27.5 Mt (2024) of which 22.8 primary and 4.7 secondary. World mine ~23 Mt (2024); Chile 5.3 Mt.
- 02PrimaryInternational Copper Study Group2026Selected Copper Statistics — Table 1
Refined usage, Mt: 2022 25.86; 2023 26.64; 2024 27.42; 2025 28.20. Mine: 21.90 / 22.35 / 22.96 / 23.20. Apr 2026 forecast: usage +1.6% in 2026, +2.0% in 2027.
- 03PrimaryInternational Copper Study Group2025-10World Copper Factbook 2025
Apparent refined usage from <500 kt (1900) to 27.4 Mt (2024); long-run CAGR 3.3%. The 1900–2024 usage chart is the template the viral infographic copies.
- 04PrimaryS&P Global2026-01-08Copper in the Age of AI
S&P’s current path: 28 Mt (2025) → 42 Mt (2040). Recycled scrap more than doubles toward 10 Mt. No 53 Mt 2050 figure. This is the update of the 2022 study.
- 05PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2025-05Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Copper implied 30% supply shortfall by 2035; lithium fivefold demand growth to 2040 in STEPS.
Keep reading
53 million tonnes is a 2022 scenario, not USGS
ICSG refined usage: 15.1 Mt in 2000, 25.9 in 2022, 28.2 in 2025. IEA STEPS reaches 37.5 Mt in 2050. S&P’s 2022 net-zero path went to 53. S&P’s own 2026 update stops at 42 in 2040. The viral chart is not a year-table.
37.5
IEA STEPS copper demand, 2050 (Mt)
793 million tonnes already. 53 is one year.
USGS/OWID mine production, summed year by year: 793 million tonnes, 1900–2022. ICSG: 396 million in 2000–2022 alone. S&P’s 53 million-tonne 2050 year is 7% of the century, not more than it. The slogan compared a year to a sum.
7%
53 Mt vs 793 Mt mined, 1900–2022
The copper bind
Electrification, grids and data centres all drink copper. The IEA’s 2025 outlook still sees a 30% mined-supply gap by 2035.
30%
Implied copper supply shortfall by 2035
A battery for $108
BloombergNEF’s 2025 survey: lithium-ion packs at $108/kWh, 93% below 2010. Stationary storage packs hit $70. This is the other learning curve, and it is why batteries ate the peak-gas plant.
$108
Li-ion pack price per kWh, 2025