Energy · Issue 02
655 million people still sit in the dark
The joint IEA / World Bank / WHO tracking print for 2026: 655 million people have no electricity. Renewables overtook coal in the same decade. The last mile is not a terawatt-hour chart. It is a continent.
- People without electricity, 2026 tracking
- 655m
- Without access, 2010
- ~1.2bn
- Still cooking on polluting fuels
- 2bn
- Where most of the remaining gap lives
- SSA
The crossover that did not reach the last village
On the same desk as The century-long reign of coal is ending sits this line. The IEA, World Bank, WHO and IRENA said on 24 June 2026 that 655 million people still have no electricity, and two billion still cook on wood, charcoal, dung. Sub-Saharan Africa is most of the remainder. India’s near-universal household connections in the 2010s were the last giant national close. There is not another India-sized close in the pipeline. There is Nigeria, the DRC, Ethiopia, and a population that still grows faster than the wires.
A stall, then a vintage
IEA access notes had the world stuck near 750–770 million through the early 2020s, then 730 million in 2024. The June 2026 tracking print is 655 million. Vintages move. The shape does not: the easy billion came off; the last 600 million are rural, poor, and in places where a diesel genset still beats a grid extension on politics. Pair this with 2,500 gigawatts waiting for a wire — a queue for data centres in Virginia is not a queue for a clinic in North Kivu.
The long view is minigrids, not another 370 GW in China
China adding more solar in a year than America has ever built does not electrify the Sahel. The investable layer is the boring one: minigrids, pay-as-you-go solar, distribution utilities that can collect, and cooking fuels that are not smoke. Do not put this chart in an ESG appendix. It is the binding constraint on African productivity, and it is why Africa vs Europe on population is not yet Africa vs Europe on watts.
Investing lens
Horizon 7–20 years · Educational, not advice
The last 655 million are a distribution and collection problem, not a panel problem. Own minigrids, PAYG solar, and cooking-fuel substitutes with a unit economics that survive a subsidy cut.
Where the map points
- Minigrid and PAYG solar operators with collection data
- Clean-cooking fuels and stoves with a working last mile
- African distributors, not another utility-scale farm in a saturated grid
- Avoid counting this as a China-solar beta
What can break it
- FX and tariff risk in the operating countries
- A tracking vintage that jumps 75 million in a year
- Diesel remaining cheaper than a wire
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryIEA / Tracking SDG72026-06-24655 million people still living without electricity
Joint IEA/World Bank/WHO/IREN tracking: 655 million without electricity. 2024 IEA commentary had 730 million — vintages differ; this is the June 2026 print.
- 02PrimaryEmber2026Global Electricity Review 2026
2025: renewables 10,730 TWh (33.8%) overtook coal 10,476 TWh (33.0%). Solar 2,778 TWh (+636 TWh).
- 03PrimaryUnited Nations Population Division2024-07World Population Prospects 2024
Peak ~10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. Global TFR 2.25; China 1.01; more than half of countries below replacement.
Keep reading
The century-long reign of coal is ending
In 2025, renewable electricity generated more power than coal for the first time in the modern era. Solar did most of the work.
33.8%
Renewables share of world electricity, 2025
One year of China, America’s entire fleet
In 2025 China commissioned nearly 370 GW of solar. The United States has 279 GW of solar standing from every year it has ever installed. A single Chinese vintage now outweighs a civilisation’s stock.
370 GW
China solar additions, 2025 (IEA)
2,500 gigawatts waiting for a wire
The IEA’s 2026 electricity report puts more than 2,500 GW of projects — renewables, batteries, data centres — in grid connection queues. The world spends $400 billion a year on grids and $1 trillion on generation. That is the distribution bottleneck.
2,500 GW
Projects stalled in grid queues, 2026
Africa’s century, on one axis
Africa has 1.5 billion people. Europe has 740 million. By 2050 the UN sees 2.5 billion Africans and 710 million Europeans. This is the demographic chart the 20th century would not have believed.
2.5bn
Africa population, 2050 (UN)