Geopolitics · Issue 02
Two-thirds of the canal, gone
The Suez Canal moved a record 1.568 billion tonnes in 2023. In 2024, after the Red Sea became a war, net tonnage fell 66.5% to 525 million. 2025 stayed on the floor. Distribution tech, in this case, is a strait.
- Suez net tonnage, 2024 vs 2023
- −66.5%
- Net tonnes, 2023 record
- 1.568 bn
- Net tonnes, 2024
- 525 m
- Transits, 2025 (still −3.4% vs 2024)
- 12,758
A strait is a technology
For a century the cheapest way to move a box from Asia to Europe was a ditch in Egypt. In 2023 that ditch set a record: 1.568 billion net tons, 26,434 ships. In 2024 the Red Sea became a firing range and the record fell by two-thirds. 525 million tons. Half the ships. Pair with Ships are taking the long way round: tonne-miles jumped while tonnes crawled, because the same cargo now goes around the Cape. The investing error is to treat 2024 as a rate spike. The physical fact is a missing canal.
2025 did not bounce
FreightWaves, counting 2025 transits: 12,758 ships, another 3.4% below 2024. The tonnage print is not yet a yearbook; we scale 2024 tonnes-per-ship and get about 507 million — still a floor. SCA has forecast $8 billion of revenue as liners trickle back. That is a hope with a press officer. Maersk talking about a gradual return is not 26,000 ships. Until the waterway is a market again, the Cape is the route and the extra bunkers, crew days and working capital are the tax.
The long view is optionality on a map
Own flexible hulls, extra steaming, and the ports that win when a strait dies. Do not capitalise a spot-rate coupon as if 2023 were the mean. A ceasefire that reopens Suez will collapse tonne-miles and rates together — the mirror image of 2024. The scarce good is a schedule you can still keep when a canal is a war.
Investing lens
Horizon 2–8 years · Educational, not advice
Chokepoint risk is now a volume story, not a freight-rate story. Flexible capacity and Cape-tolerant schedules earn; a 2023 Suez coupon does not.
Where the map points
- Operators with Cape-viable bunker and crew plans
- Ports and bunkering on the African detour
- Hulls that can absorb extra days without a covenant breach
- Avoid treating a ceasefire as a permanent 2023 canal
What can break it
- A sudden reopening that dumps tonne-miles and rates at once
- Insurance and flag bans that outlast the shooting
- A 2025 vessel count that is not yet a 2025 tonne print
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryState Information Service, Egypt2025Suez Canal — Egyptian economy sectors
SCA prints via SIS: net tonnage 1.207 bn (2019), 1.169 (2020), 1.275 (2021), 1.410 (2022), 1.568 record (2023), 0.525 (−66.5%, 2024). Vessels 26,434 (2023), 13,213 (2024, −50%).
- 02CorroboratedFreightWaves2026-03-03Suez Canal traffic flowing normally, absent major lines
2025 transits 12,758, −3.4% vs 13,213 in 2024. Used to reconstruct 2025 tonnage at 2024 tonnes-per-ship.
- 03PrimaryUN Trade and Development2025-09-24Maritime trade under pressure — growth set to stall in 2025
Seaborne trade +2.2% in 2024, +0.5% in 2025. Tonne-miles +6% in 2024. SCFI averaged 2,496 in 2024, +149% vs 2023. July 2024 spot ~$3,600/container.
Keep reading
Ships are taking the long way round
Seaborne trade grew 2.2% in 2024 and is set to crawl at 0.5% in 2025. Tonne-miles jumped 6% — three times the cargo — because vessels are avoiding chokepoints. Distribution of goods is now a distance story.
+6%
Seaborne tonne-miles, 2024
Four hundred million barrels
On 11 March 2026 the IEA voted to release 400 million barrels from emergency stocks — three times the 2022 Ukraine actions combined, six times Katrina. The Strait of Hormuz is still not a market you can count on.
400 mb
IEA collective stock release, 11 Mar 2026
Four million barrels a day, gone
IEA August 2026: world oil supply is now projected to fall 4.3 mb/d this year, to 102 mb/d. Gulf output is still 8.3 mb/d below pre-war. The Americas can grow. They cannot replace a strait.
−4.3
mb/d, world oil supply 2026 vs 2025 (IEA)
1,835 terabits under the ocean
International internet bandwidth hit 1,835 Tbps in 2025, up 23%. Nearly 40 new submarine cables are due in 2026 — about $6 billion of steel and glass, the busiest year in a decade. AI training may be in a desert. Inference still crosses an ocean.
1,835 Tbps
International bandwidth, 2025