Resources · Issue 02
Seventy-one thousand dollars a tonne, then nine
USGS: US lithium carbonate averaged $71,100 a tonne in 2023 and $9,000 in 2025. The same mine complex that was a 2022 miracle is a 2026 balance-sheet test. Production went ninefold. Price did the opposite.
- US lithium carbonate, 2023 to 2025 (USGS)
- −87%
- US carbonate, 2023 (MCS 2025)
- $71,100
- US carbonate, 2025 (MCS 2026)
- $9,000
- World mine output, 2025
- 290 kt
The spike was a warehouse in costume
USGS is the print to argue with. United States lithium carbonate averaged $11,700 a tonne in 2021, $63,700 in 2022, $71,100 in 2023, then $11,800 in 2024 and $9,000 in 2025. That is an 87% fall from the 2023 contract peak in two years. The same summaries put world mine output at 290,000 tonnes of lithium content in 2025, against 38,000 in 2016. Supply did the homework. The price did what surplus prices do. China spot, which is not this line, has bounced in 2026 — Fastmarkets raised its 2026 carbonate view to $23.80/kg. A bounce is not $71,000. A bounce is what a destock looks like when EVs keep compounding.
Three lithiums, still
Mined tonnes, battery-grade carbonate, and refined chemicals in China are three markets. Pair this chart with Lithium grew ninefold and A battery for $108. Pack prices kept falling while carbonate had a nervous breakdown, because the cell is more than the metal and the metal is more than the mine. The 2022 tape recruited balance sheets that only work above $20,000. USGS just printed $9,000. That is the screen.
The long view is a 2030s call bought in a glut
IEA still sees lithium demand fivefold to 2040 under stated policies. If that path holds, $9,000 is the entry. If sodium-ion and LFP chemistry keep substituting, $9,000 is a value trap with a pretty mine. Own low-cost tonnes that survive $10,000. Do not own a 2022 price in a 2026 income statement, and do not treat a September 2026 China-spot bounce as a new supercycle print.
Investing lens
Horizon 4–12 years · Educational, not advice
Lithium is a surplus with a 2030s option. The USGS price is the screen: low-cost tonnes, not 2022 tape. Keep copper in a different sleeve — that bottleneck did not show up.
Where the map points
- Tier-one hard-rock and brine with all-in costs that work at $10,000 carbonate
- Conversion capacity outside China, as policy optionality
- Copper and grid metals as the tighter 2020s bind
- Avoid a single critical-minerals blob and any 2022-price covenant
What can break it
- A 2026 China-spot bounce that is destocking, not tightness
- Further Australian and African tonnes
- Sodium-ion and chemistry substitution
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryU.S. Geological Survey2026-02Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 — Lithium
Battery-grade lithium carbonate: 2021 $11,700/t; 2022 $63,700; 2024 $11,800; 2025 $9,000. World mine output 290,000 t lithium content (2025e); 222,000 in 2024.
- 02PrimaryU.S. Geological Survey2025-01Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 — Lithium
US lithium carbonate annual average $71,100/t in 2023, $14,000 in 2024 (−66% as stated in some wraps; $14,000 / $71,100 is −80%. We print the dollar figures). 2024 later revised to $11,800 in MCS 2026.
- 03PrimaryU.S. Geological Survey2026-02Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026
US remains import-reliant on China for a long list of critical minerals, including rare earths, graphite, gallium.
- 04PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2025-05Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Copper implied 30% supply shortfall by 2035; lithium fivefold demand growth to 2040 in STEPS.
Keep reading
Lithium grew ninefold. The price did not.
USGS: world lithium mine production reached about 290,000 tonnes of lithium content in 2025. In 2016 it was 38,000. Supply did the energy-transition homework. The price did the opposite.
290 kt
World lithium mine output, 2025
A battery for $108
BloombergNEF’s 2025 survey: lithium-ion packs at $108/kWh, 93% below 2010. Stationary storage packs hit $70. This is the other learning curve, and it is why batteries ate the peak-gas plant.
$108
Li-ion pack price per kWh, 2025
The copper bind
Electrification, grids and data centres all drink copper. The IEA’s 2025 outlook still sees a 30% mined-supply gap by 2035.
30%
Implied copper supply shortfall by 2035
One in four new cars is now electric
The IEA counted 21 million electric cars in 2025. China already sells more EVs than ICE. America is the holdout.
25%
World new-car sales that were electric, 2025