Markets · Issue 02
Five months, or twenty-two years
Months from the S&P 500 closing low back to the prior closing high. 2020: 5. 1982: 3. 2022: 15. 2008: 48. 1929: 267. Price only. Dividends would have you whole sooner. The newspaper would not.
- 011929–32Jun 1932 → Sep 1954267
- 021937–38to Feb 194583
- 031973–74to ~Jul 198069
- 042000–02to 30 May 200756
- 052007–09to 28 Mar 201348
- 061968–70to Mar 197221
- 071987to Jul 198919
- 082022to 19 Jan 202415
- 092020to 18 Aug 20205
- 101982long grind, short reclaim3
- 2009 low to 28 Mar 2013 high
- 48 mo
- 2020, 23 Mar to 18 Aug
- 5 mo
- 2022, 12 Oct to 19 Jan 2024
- 15 mo
- 1932 low to Sep 1954
- 267 mo
The wait is the crash people actually live
A −57% print is a month. Forty-eight months is a career. Reuters and NPR, 28 March 2013: the S&P closed 1,569.19 and finally retired 9 October 2007. That is the modern wait. 2020 retired 19 February in August. 2022 retired 3 January 2022 on 19 January 2024. The distribution is not a bell. It is a pile of 3–21 month recoveries, a shoulder at four years, and 1929 at twenty-two. Log scale is how you put them on one wall without lying about 2020.
Dividends are real. They are not this chart.
A total-return unit, reinvested, was whole sooner — in 2008 by years, in 1929 by more than years. We still print price. Households look at the level. Pensions look at the level they must write down. The 10-K impairment is price. Pair with The $348 trillion ledger: a four-year hole in risk assets is how fiscal gravity gets paid, in the public accounts, long before the total-return chart looks fine.
The long view is a clock, not a feeling
Own a rule that can sit through 48 months. Do not own a rule that needs 5. What would change this page: a total-return companion on the same names, or a new 20% episode. 4 September 2026 has neither.
Investing lens
Horizon 5–25 years · Educational, not advice
The recoveries that hurt are four years, not five months. Liquidity to still be a buyer at month 24 is the whole product.
Where the map points
- Cash and short quality duration with a 48-month job
- A rebalancing calendar, not a V-shaped memory
- Avoid leverage with a three-year refi
- Do not treat 2020 as the mean wait
What can break it
- A 1929-shaped wait the sample cannot fund
- A 2020-shaped V that punishes cash
- Inflation that makes a price reclaim a real loss
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryHartford Funds / Ned Davis Research2025-0310 Things You Should Know About Bear Markets
S&P 500 close-to-close declines of 20% or more, 1929–2024. As of 31 Mar 2025. Average −35% across 20% episodes. Cycle depths (1929 −86%, 2008 −57%) are a different ruler, used on our crash bubble.
- 02PrimaryReuters2013-03-28S&P 500 closes above 2007 peak
28 Mar 2013 close 1,569.19, first close above 9 Oct 2007’s 1,565.15.
- 03CorroboratedNPR2013-03-28S&P 500 Closes at a Record, Recovering from 2008 Crash
Same 28 Mar 2013 reclaim of the October 2007 high.
- 04CorroboratedReuters2024-01-19S&P 500 recoups 2022 high
19 Jan 2024 reclaim of the 3 Jan 2022 peak after the 2022 bear.
- 05PrimaryPBS / NPR2020-08-18S&P 500 erases coronavirus-crash losses
18 Aug 2020 close above the 19 Feb 2020 peak of 3,386.15. Trough 2,237.40 on 23 Mar.
- 06PrimaryFederal Reserve History1929Stock Market Crash of 1929
Dow 381.17 on 3 Sep 1929 to 41.22 on 8 Jul 1932 (−89%). Nominal high recouped 23 Nov 1954.
Keep reading
The deeper the crash, the longer the wait. Except twice.
S&P 500 price, peak to trough versus months from the low back to the old high. 1929 is a different animal. 2020 is the other exception: −34% and whole in five months. 2022 was −25% and fifteen. There is no 2026 crash on this wall.
5 mo
2020: trough to prior peak (price)
Minus 86, then 57, then 49. The modern crash is not 1929.
S&P 500 cycle drawdowns, price. 1929–32 −86.2%. 2007–09 −56.8%. 2000–02 −49.1%. 2020 −33.9%. 2022 −25.4%. Hartford’s 20% census averages −35%. That average is a slice, not the Depression.
−56.8%
GFC, 9 Oct 2007 – 9 Mar 2009
Index each crash to 100. 2020 is a V. 2008 is a hole. 2022 is a grind.
Month-end S&P 500, peak neighbourhood = 100. GFC: Oct 2007. COVID: Jan 2020. 2022: Dec 2021. 2025’s tariff week is the fourth line — −19% and back by June. Shape is the crash.
47
GFC, Feb 2009 month-end, peak = 100
2022 is the worst 60/40 since 1937. 2008 was kinder.
Damodaran S&P 60 / 10-year Treasury 40, calendar years. 1931 −27.3%. 1937 −20.7%. 2022 −18.0%. 2008 only −13.9%, because the 40% returned +20%. The worse equity year was not the worse mix.
−18.0%
60/40 in 2022, Damodaran splice
Seven names, a third of the S&P
Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla were 34% of the S&P 500 in August 2026 — about $24 trillion in one corridor of the market.
33.9%
Magnificent 7 share of the S&P 500, Aug 2026