Markets · The hall
The deeper the crash, the longer the wait. Except twice.
S&P 500 price, peak to trough versus months from the low back to the old high. 1929 is a different animal. 2020 is the other exception: −34% and whole in five months. 2022 was −25% and fifteen. There is no 2026 crash on this wall.
- 2020: trough to prior peak (price)
- 5 mo
- 1929–32, to 22 Sep 1954
- 268 mo
- 2007–09, to 28 Mar 2013
- 49 mo
- 2022, to 19 Jan 2024
- 15 mo
Two rulers. Do not mix them.
Hartford Funds, wrapping Ned Davis Research as of March 2025: every S&P 500 close-to-close drop of 20% is a bear. That table splits 1929–32 into five episodes, and it splits 2000–02 and 2007–09 in two. Useful as a 20% census. Useless as a crash study. The newspapers printed one Depression, one dot-com, one global financial crisis. This bubble is the cycle: peak of the bull to the last low, then the months until the old high is back — price only, no dividends. 9 October 2007 closed 1,565.15. 9 March 2009 closed 676.53. That is −56.8%, not Hartford’s −51.93 then −27.62. Reuters, 28 March 2013: 1,569.19, the first close above the 2007 print. Forty-eight months. Pair with 2020: 33 days down 33.9%, whole in five months. The correlation is real until it is 1929, or it is a pandemic with a central bank.
2022 was ordinary. 1929 is not a template.
Hartford: 3 January–12 October 2022, −25.43%, 282 days. The prior high was back on 19 January 2024, fifteen months from the low. That sits in the cluster with 1962 and 1987, not with 1974 or 2008. 1929–32 is −86% and 267 months. Plotting it on the same linear axes is the point: one crash is not a distribution. Size is how fast the fall happened — 1987 and 2020 are small, fast discs; 2000 and 1929 are large, slow ones. A deep, slow crash is a balance-sheet event. A deep, fast crash is a liquidity event. Own that distinction, not a slogan that ‘they always come back in three years.’ 1982 came back in three months. 1929 did not come back in three years.
The long view is price, dividends, and a 2026 that is not on the chart
A total-return unit recovered sooner than this wall. We print price because that is the crash a 10-K and a newspaper print. CAPE at 42 in September 2026 is a valuation, not a drawdown. April 2025’s tariff week closed −18.9% — a correction, not a 20% bear, recovered by 27 June (BIS). What would change this page: a close 20% below the last high, or a total-return table we can put on the same axes. Until then the outliers are the story: 1929 at the top, 2020 on the floor, 2022 in the cluster.
Investing lens
Horizon Full cycle, 5–25 years · Educational, not advice
Crash depth predicts recovery time except when policy floods the tape or when the banking system is the tape. Size for a 2008, do not underwrite a 2020, and do not use 1929 as a base case.
Where the map points
- A written rebalancing rule at −20% and −40%, not a feeling
- Quality duration and cash as the thing you sell into the low
- Avoid leverage that has a 48-month clock
- Do not treat CAPE 42 as a dated crash
What can break it
- A 1929-shaped event that this sample of eleven cannot price
- A 2020-shaped rebound that makes caution look late
- Confusing price recovery with real total-return recovery
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryHartford Funds / Ned Davis Research2025-0310 Things You Should Know About Bear Markets
S&P 500 close-to-close declines of 20% or more, 1929–2024. As of 31 Mar 2025. Average −35% across 20% episodes. Cycle depths (1929 −86%, 2008 −57%) are a different ruler, used on our crash bubble.
- 02PrimaryReuters2013-03-28S&P 500 closes above 2007 peak
28 Mar 2013 close 1,569.19, first close above 9 Oct 2007’s 1,565.15.
- 03CorroboratedNPR2013-03-28S&P 500 Closes at a Record, Recovering from 2008 Crash
Same 28 Mar 2013 reclaim of the October 2007 high.
- 04CorroboratedReuters2024-01-19S&P 500 recoups 2022 high
19 Jan 2024 reclaim of the 3 Jan 2022 peak after the 2022 bear.
- 05PrimaryPBS / NPR2020-08-18S&P 500 erases coronavirus-crash losses
18 Aug 2020 close above the 19 Feb 2020 peak of 3,386.15. Trough 2,237.40 on 23 Mar.
- 06PrimaryFederal Reserve History1929Stock Market Crash of 1929
Dow 381.17 on 3 Sep 1929 to 41.22 on 8 Jul 1932 (−89%). Nominal high recouped 23 Nov 1954.
Keep reading
Minus 86, then 57, then 49. The modern crash is not 1929.
S&P 500 cycle drawdowns, price. 1929–32 −86.2%. 2007–09 −56.8%. 2000–02 −49.1%. 2020 −33.9%. 2022 −25.4%. Hartford’s 20% census averages −35%. That average is a slice, not the Depression.
−56.8%
GFC, 9 Oct 2007 – 9 Mar 2009
Five months, or twenty-two years
Months from the S&P 500 closing low back to the prior closing high. 2020: 5. 1982: 3. 2022: 15. 2008: 48. 1929: 267. Price only. Dividends would have you whole sooner. The newspaper would not.
48 mo
2009 low to 28 Mar 2013 high
CAPE is 42. It has only been higher once.
Shiller via Multpl: January 2000 43.8, the record 44.2 in December 1999. 2 September 2026: 41.93. January 2009: 15.2. A high CAPE is not a crash date. 2007’s crash arrived from 27.
41.93
Shiller CAPE, 2 Sep 2026 (Multpl)
The year stocks and bonds occupied the same quadrant
Each bubble is a calendar year. X is Damodaran’s S&P total return. Y is his 10-year Treasury. Size is gold. 2008 is the upper-left hedge. 2022 sits on the 45-degree line, both down 18%.
−18.0 / −17.8
S&P and 10-year Treasuries, 2022
Index each crash to 100. 2020 is a V. 2008 is a hole. 2022 is a grind.
Month-end S&P 500, peak neighbourhood = 100. GFC: Oct 2007. COVID: Jan 2020. 2022: Dec 2021. 2025’s tariff week is the fourth line — −19% and back by June. Shape is the crash.
47
GFC, Feb 2009 month-end, peak = 100