Markets · Issue 02
Index each crash to 100. 2020 is a V. 2008 is a hole. 2022 is a grind.
Month-end S&P 500, peak neighbourhood = 100. GFC: Oct 2007. COVID: Jan 2020. 2022: Dec 2021. 2025’s tariff week is the fourth line — −19% and back by June. Shape is the crash.
- 2007–09
- 2020
- 2022
- 2025 tariff
- GFC, Feb 2009 month-end, peak = 100
- 47
- COVID trough close, 23 Mar 2020
- 66
- 2022, Sep month-end
- 75
- 2025 tariff trough close
- 81
Shape is the crash. Depth is a single number.
The bubble on this desk plots depth against wait. This line plots the walk. 2020 is a cliff and a bounce: month 2 is 80 on a January base, month 6 is already 101. 2008 is a slow leak that becomes a trapdoor in autumn — month 12 is 63, month 16 is 47. 2022 is a grind: never as deep as either, never as fast, and still below 81 at month 12. 2025 is a 1987 in miniature, a policy shock, two ugly days, VIX 45, then a pause that sent the S&P +9.5% on 9 April. It does not earn a 20% bear tag. It earns a place on this wall so it cannot be confused with 2022.
Month-end lies a little. The troughs are in the stats.
March 2009 closed 798 on the index and 676 intra-month (43 on the Oct 2007 peak). March 2020 closed 2,585 and 2,237 on the 23rd (66 on the 19 Feb peak of 3,386). We will not pretend a month-end is a crash low. We also will not put a daily series on a magazine wall we cannot re-download on revive. The IBKR 2022 monthly lasts and the FRED-style month-ends are the grid. Pair with Deeper takes longer for the true peak-to-trough closes.
The long view is not to average the four lines
A mean of 2008, 2020, 2022 and 2025 is a number that never happened. Size for the hole, do not underwrite the V, and do not call 2025 a crash because it felt like one for two sessions. What would change this page: a new 20% close-to-close S&P episode. 4 September 2026 does not have one.
Investing lens
Horizon Full cycle · Educational, not advice
Path-dependence is the mandate. A 33-day −34% and a 17-month −57% are not the same product, even if both are ‘a crash’.
Where the map points
- Liquidity to still be a buyer at month 12, not only at week 3
- Do not average 2020 and 2008 into a holding period
- Treat 2025 as a policy-reversal tape, not a balance-sheet tape
- The bubble’s 48-month clock remains the 2008 lesson
What can break it
- A 2020-shaped V that punishes the cash you sized for 2008
- A 2008-shaped hole that punishes the dip-buy you sized for 2020
- Month-end charts that miss the intra-month low you actually marked
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryFRED / S&P Dow Jones Indices2026S&P 500 (SP500)
Daily and month-end S&P 500. GFC month-end path on From the peak is indexed to Oct 2007 1,549.38. COVID path indexed to Jan 2020 3,225.52.
- 02PrimaryInteractive Brokers2026-09-04SPY and TLT monthly last prices
Month-end last: SPY Dec 2021 474.96 → Dec 2022 382.43. TLT 148.19 → 99.56. October 2022 TLT 96.11 is the monthly low on that grid. Price, not total return.
- 03PrimaryCNBC2025-04-08S&P 500 closes at 4,982.77
8 Apr 2025 close 4,982.77. Peak 6,144.15 on 19 Feb 2025 is −18.9%. Not a 20% bear close.
- 04CorroboratedReuters2025-04-08Wall Street slump as tariff shock deepens
Confirms the 8 Apr 2025 S&P close of 4,982.77. Recoup of the Feb high by 27 Jun 2025.
- 05PrimaryHartford Funds / Ned Davis Research2025-0310 Things You Should Know About Bear Markets
S&P 500 close-to-close declines of 20% or more, 1929–2024. As of 31 Mar 2025. Average −35% across 20% episodes. Cycle depths (1929 −86%, 2008 −57%) are a different ruler, used on our crash bubble.
- 06PrimaryPBS / NPR2020-08-18S&P 500 erases coronavirus-crash losses
18 Aug 2020 close above the 19 Feb 2020 peak of 3,386.15. Trough 2,237.40 on 23 Mar.
Keep reading
The deeper the crash, the longer the wait. Except twice.
S&P 500 price, peak to trough versus months from the low back to the old high. 1929 is a different animal. 2020 is the other exception: −34% and whole in five months. 2022 was −25% and fifteen. There is no 2026 crash on this wall.
5 mo
2020: trough to prior peak (price)
Minus 86, then 57, then 49. The modern crash is not 1929.
S&P 500 cycle drawdowns, price. 1929–32 −86.2%. 2007–09 −56.8%. 2000–02 −49.1%. 2020 −33.9%. 2022 −25.4%. Hartford’s 20% census averages −35%. That average is a slice, not the Depression.
−56.8%
GFC, 9 Oct 2007 – 9 Mar 2009
Twelve months when the 40% fell with the 60%
SPY and TLT, month-end, indexed to 100 at December 2021. By October the stock fund was at 81, the long Treasury fund at 65. They did not take turns. Interactive Brokers last prints.
65
TLT in Oct 2022, Dec 2021 = 100
The year stocks and bonds occupied the same quadrant
Each bubble is a calendar year. X is Damodaran’s S&P total return. Y is his 10-year Treasury. Size is gold. 2008 is the upper-left hedge. 2022 sits on the 45-degree line, both down 18%.
−18.0 / −17.8
S&P and 10-year Treasuries, 2022
Five months, or twenty-two years
Months from the S&P 500 closing low back to the prior closing high. 2020: 5. 1982: 3. 2022: 15. 2008: 48. 1929: 267. Price only. Dividends would have you whole sooner. The newspaper would not.
48 mo
2009 low to 28 Mar 2013 high
The 45-degree line is a 60/40 that did no work
X is Damodaran’s S&P calendar return. Y is 60% that S&P and 40% his 10-year. The dashed line is Y = X: the mix is the stock. 2008 sits far above it. 2022 sits on it.
0.08 pt
2022 60/40 vs 100% S&P