Energy · Issue 02
Germany’s heat pump just beat the gas boiler
EHPA: Europe sold 2.9 million heat pumps in 2025, up 13%. In Germany they took half of the space-heating market for the first time. The 2022 boom and the 2024 bust were a policy chart. This is the install base starting to win.
- Germany space-heating market, heat pumps, 2025
- 50%
- Europe sales, 2025 (21 countries)
- 2.9m
- Installed stock
- 29.3m
- 2025 vs 2024
- +13%
A 50% share is not a subsidy tweet
The European Heat Pump Association’s 2025 wrap is the print: 2.9 million units in 21 countries, +13%, a 29.3 million stock. Germany is the sentence that matters. Heat pumps took 50% of the space-heating market for the first time, on a 50% jump in sales. Gas boilers fell to the rest. France still leads unit sales (528,000). Italy is second (423,000). Germany is the crossover. Pair this with The cheapest electron and A battery for $108. A heat pump is a 3–4 kW demand response unit with a compressor. It only wins when the electron is cheap and the gas is not a political given.
2022 was a panic. 2024 was a hangover. 2025 is a market
Sales hit about 3 million in 2022 when Russian gas was a wartime price. They fell in 2023 and another 22% in 2024 as gas cheapened, rates rose, and German subsidy rules whiplashed. 2025 is the first year the German share looks like a replacement cycle rather than a panic. The EU’s 60 million stock by 2030 is still a stretch from 29 million. The investing error is to treat the 2024 slump as the end of electrified heat, or the 2022 spike as a run-rate.
The long view is the boiler graveyard, on a twenty-year clock
Europe’s heating stock turns over slowly. A 50% sales share becomes a 50% stock share on a 15–20 year delay. Own the compressor, the refrigerant, the installer network, and the utility that sells the winter electron. Do not own a 2022 heat-pump OEM that needs 3 million units every year and a German subsidy that does not blink.
Investing lens
Horizon 5–15 years · Educational, not advice
Electrified heat is a replacement cycle, not a 2022 panic. Own compressors, installers and winter power. Size for policy whiplash.
Where the map points
- Heat-pump OEMs and compressor suppliers with a European service network
- Refrigerant and tank/cylinder specialists
- Distribution utilities and flexibility that can sell the winter peak
- Avoid a single-country subsidy story
What can break it
- Gas-price collapse that re-cheapens the boiler
- Electricity-to-gas price ratios that stay above 3
- Installer capacity and fabric (insulation) as the true bottleneck
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryEuropean Heat Pump Association2026Market data — European heat pump sales
2025: 2.9 million sales in 21 European countries, +13%; stock 29.3 million. Germany: +50% sales, 50% of national space-heating market for the first time.
- 02CorroboratedEuropean Heat Pump Association2026-03-02Heat pump sales testify to government action
16-country 2025 print: 2.62 million, +10.3%, stock ~28 million. Germany almost half of heat generators sold. Neighbouring coverage to the 21-country 2.9 million wrap.
- 03PrimaryEmber2026Global Electricity Review 2026
2025: renewables 10,730 TWh (33.8%) overtook coal 10,476 TWh (33.0%). Solar 2,778 TWh (+636 TWh).
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