Energy · Issue 02
America’s other gusher is methane
EIA: US LNG exports hit a record 14.6 billion cubic feet a day in 2025 and are forecast at 17.0 in 2026. From almost nothing in 2016, the United States became the world’s swing supplier of seaborne gas.
- US LNG exports, 2026 forecast (Bcf/d)
- 17.0
- 2025 actual, +24%
- 14.6
- 2016, Sabine Pass year one
- ~0.5
- Capacity path into the early 2030s
- 2×
The second shale revolution was a dock
EIA’s April 2026 note is the print: 14.6 Bcf/d of LNG left the US in 2025, up about a quarter, and 17.0 is the 2026 path as Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass ramp. In 2016 this chart was a rounding error. After 2022 it was how Europe replaced Russian pipe. Pair this with The American gusher and The long way round. Crude and methane now share a Gulf Coast loading problem — and a Hormuz-adjacent European bid.
A molecule with a ten-year offtake
Unlike oil, LNG is mostly 15- to 20-year contracts into Asia and Europe. The investing error is to trade a spot TTF spike as if it were a Sabine Pass margin. The rents sit in liquefaction with contracted offtake, in the pipes that feed the docks, and in a 2030s capacity wave that can overbuild if China and Europe both disappoint.
The long view is a doubling that needs buyers
North American capacity is on track toward the high 20s Bcf/d by 2029 if projects land. Own operating trains and the gas that is already contracted. Do not own the last FID at the peak of a 17 Bcf/d print.
Investing lens
Horizon 5–12 years · Educational, not advice
US LNG is the swing seaborne gas. Own contracted liquefaction and feedgas. Size new FIDs as if 2030 is oversupplied.
Where the map points
- Liquefaction with long offtake (Cheniere-class)
- Gulf Coast midstream into the docks
- European and Asian utilities with US offtake
- Avoid a spot-TTF equity story with no contract
What can break it
- A mild Europe plus a slow China
- Permitting and NIMBY on the next wave
- Methane rules that raise the cost of US molecules
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryU.S. Energy Information Administration2026-04-16U.S. natural gas exports to grow nearly 30% by 2027 as LNG facilities ramp
US LNG exports 17.0 Bcf/d in 2026 (+1.9), +1.5 in 2027. Net gas exports 18.7 Bcf/d in 2026.
- 02CorroboratedU.S. Energy Information Administration / STEO2026-01U.S. LNG exports surge
2025 LNG exports 14.6 Bcf/d, +24–26% y/y. Capacity FIDs ~9 Bcf/d in 2025.
- 03PrimaryU.S. Energy Information Administration2026-07-09The United States produced more crude oil than any other country in 2025
US crude including lease condensate averaged a record 13.6 million b/d in 2025, above the 13.2 million b/d record of 2024. Russia 9.9, Saudi Arabia 9.6.
Keep reading
America now pumps more oil than anyone ever has
EIA: US crude averaged 13.6 million barrels a day in 2025 — a record for the country and for any country. Russia did 9.9. Saudi Arabia did 9.6. The energy transition is real. So is the Permian.
13.6
US crude, million barrels/day, 2025
Ships are taking the long way round
Seaborne trade grew 2.2% in 2024 and is set to crawl at 0.5% in 2025. Tonne-miles jumped 6% — three times the cargo — because vessels are avoiding chokepoints. Distribution of goods is now a distance story.
+6%
Seaborne tonne-miles, 2024
Four hundred million barrels
On 11 March 2026 the IEA voted to release 400 million barrels from emergency stocks — three times the 2022 Ukraine actions combined, six times Katrina. The Strait of Hormuz is still not a market you can count on.
400 mb
IEA collective stock release, 11 Mar 2026
Four million barrels a day, gone
IEA August 2026: world oil supply is now projected to fall 4.3 mb/d this year, to 102 mb/d. Gulf output is still 8.3 mb/d below pre-war. The Americas can grow. They cannot replace a strait.
−4.3
mb/d, world oil supply 2026 vs 2025 (IEA)