Energy · Issue 01
America now pumps more oil than anyone ever has
EIA: US crude averaged 13.6 million barrels a day in 2025 — a record for the country and for any country. Russia did 9.9. Saudi Arabia did 9.6. The energy transition is real. So is the Permian.
- United States
- Russia
- Saudi Arabia
- US crude, million barrels/day, 2025
- 13.6
- Russia, 2025
- 9.9
- Saudi Arabia, 2025
- 9.6
- Previous record, US 2024
- 13.2
The largest oil country is also the transition country
EIA, 9 July 2026: US crude including lease condensate averaged 13.6 million barrels a day in 2025, above the 13.2 million record of 2024, above every Saudi vintage, above every Russian vintage. Russia 9.9, Saudi Arabia 9.6. In 2008 the US was at 5.0. The shale decade did not fade when prices wobbled. It industrialised. This sits in the same issue as coal losing the electricity stack and solar at $44/MWh. Both prints are true.
A spare-capacity story with a different flag
OPEC’s old job was to be the swing. The Permian, with shorter-cycle wells and a service industry that already exists, is now a de facto swing too — not because Washington wants it, because the decline rate and the DUC drawer make it one. Pair with The long way round (tankers) and Batteries eat gas. Oil demand can peak and US production can still print records if someone else cuts, or if US gasoline demand falls slower than US export capacity rises. 2025 did both: more US barrels, disciplined OPEC+.
The long view is peak demand meeting a very large producer
If the electric-car chart (one in four new cars) compounds, these 13.6 million barrels become a fight for market share into a shrinking pool. If it does not, they are a decade of export rents and a geopolitical lever. Own the low-cost US barrel and the midstream that takes it to the water. Do not own a 2014 bust-cycle memory as if the basin had not just printed the highest annual in history.
Investing lens
Horizon 3–10 years · Educational, not advice
The US is the marginal barrel and the largest barrel. Size short-cycle shale and Gulf Coast export infrastructure as a regime that can coexist with $44 solar. Do not treat ‘transition’ as a synonym for ‘US oil shrinks’.
Where the map points
- Low-decline Permian operators with clean balance sheets
- Gulf Coast export pipes and docks
- Oilfield services only as a cycle, not a religion
- A smaller OPEC-leverage sleeve — they are no longer the volume king
What can break it
- A demand peak that arrives faster than decline rates
- Policy that actually constrains federal leasing or exports
- EIA weekly vs annual — this chart is the annual
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryU.S. Energy Information Administration2026-07-09The United States produced more crude oil than any other country in 2025
US crude including lease condensate averaged a record 13.6 million b/d in 2025, above the 13.2 million b/d record of 2024. Russia 9.9, Saudi Arabia 9.6.
- 02PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2026Global Energy Review 2026 — Key findings
Solar PV +600 TWh in 2025, the largest single-year increase by any source outside post-crisis recoveries.
- 03PrimaryEmber2026Global Electricity Review 2026
2025: renewables 10,730 TWh (33.8%) overtook coal 10,476 TWh (33.0%). Solar 2,778 TWh (+636 TWh).
Keep reading
The century-long reign of coal is ending
In 2025, renewable electricity generated more power than coal for the first time in the modern era. Solar did most of the work.
33.8%
Renewables share of world electricity, 2025
One in four new cars is now electric
The IEA counted 21 million electric cars in 2025. China already sells more EVs than ICE. America is the holdout.
25%
World new-car sales that were electric, 2025
Ships are taking the long way round
Seaborne trade grew 2.2% in 2024 and is set to crawl at 0.5% in 2025. Tonne-miles jumped 6% — three times the cargo — because vessels are avoiding chokepoints. Distribution of goods is now a distance story.
+6%
Seaborne tonne-miles, 2024