Markets · The hall
Twelve months when the 40% fell with the 60%
SPY and TLT, month-end, indexed to 100 at December 2021. By October the stock fund was at 81, the long Treasury fund at 65. They did not take turns. Interactive Brokers last prints.
- SPY
- TLT, 20y+
- TLT in Oct 2022, Dec 2021 = 100
- 65
- SPY, same month
- 81
- SPY price, calendar 2022
- −19.5%
- TLT price, calendar 2022
- −32.8%
They fell in the same months
A hedge that works takes its turn. In 2008 the Treasury fund would have risen while SPY fell. In 2022 the lines travel together, TLT steeper. Interactive Brokers month-end lasts, indexed to December 2021: SPY prints 75 in September, 81 in October; TLT prints 69 then 65. There is no month on this wall where the long bond paid you to sit through the equity drawdown. That is the definition of the correlation flip, in twelve dots rather than a coefficient.
Price is meaner than Damodaran, and it is what the ticker showed
Damodaran’s 10-year total return is −17.8%. TLT is a 20-year-plus fund and this line is price, so −32.8% calendar. Both are true. The brochure 60/40 is closer to Damodaran. The IRA that bought TLT as ‘the 40%’ sat in this line. Marquette’s Aggregate −13.1% is the third ruler, shorter duration. We put TLT on the wall because it is the popular duration proxy, and because the story is worse — not better — when you use it. Pair with Sixty-forty the exception for the textbook mix.
The long view is a monthly coincidence test
If the two lines diverge, the mix is working. If they rhyme, you are holding one bet. What would change this page: a year in which TLT rises through an SPY −20%. 2023–25 on the same feed is not that year in reverse so much as an equity bull with a still-wounded long bond. As of early September 2026 TLT still sits under 83 on this index. The 40% has not been made whole.
Investing lens
Horizon 3–10 years · Educational, not advice
Long duration is a recession trade, not a default 40%. If the holding is TLT, the 2022 path is the stress test, and it has not recouped.
Where the map points
- Match duration to the shock you are underwriting
- A ladder or T-bills as the ballast that still paid in 2022
- Do not confuse Agg −13% with TLT −33%
- Rebalance into equities only if the other sleeve still has dry powder
What can break it
- A growth shock that makes TLT the hero and cash the regret
- Using price when the mandate is total return
- A 2026 recoup in TLT that makes this wall look late
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryInteractive Brokers2026-09-04SPY and TLT monthly last prices
Month-end last: SPY Dec 2021 474.96 → Dec 2022 382.43. TLT 148.19 → 99.56. October 2022 TLT 96.11 is the monthly low on that grid. Price, not total return.
- 02PrimaryAswath Damodaran, NYU Stern2026-01Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills: 1928–2025
Calendar total returns. 2022: S&P −18.04%, 10-year Treasuries −17.83%, T-bills +2.09%, Baa −15.23%, gold +0.55%, real estate +5.65%. 2008: S&P −36.55%, 10-year +20.10%, gold +4.32%. 2025: S&P +17.78%, 10-year +7.80%, gold +66.22%.
- 03PrimaryMarquette Associates2023-02The 60/40 Portfolio Revisited: Back from the Dead?
Calendar 2022: S&P −18.1%, Bloomberg US Agg −13.1%, 60/40 −16.1%. Full-year average stock–bond correlation +0.15 vs long-term −0.24. 90-day window a 20-year high.
Keep reading
The year stocks and bonds occupied the same quadrant
Each bubble is a calendar year. X is Damodaran’s S&P total return. Y is his 10-year Treasury. Size is gold. 2008 is the upper-left hedge. 2022 sits on the 45-degree line, both down 18%.
−18.0 / −17.8
S&P and 10-year Treasuries, 2022
2022 is the worst 60/40 since 1937. 2008 was kinder.
Damodaran S&P 60 / 10-year Treasury 40, calendar years. 1931 −27.3%. 1937 −20.7%. 2022 −18.0%. 2008 only −13.9%, because the 40% returned +20%. The worse equity year was not the worse mix.
−18.0%
60/40 in 2022, Damodaran splice
Index each crash to 100. 2020 is a V. 2008 is a hole. 2022 is a grind.
Month-end S&P 500, peak neighbourhood = 100. GFC: Oct 2007. COVID: Jan 2020. 2022: Dec 2021. 2025’s tariff week is the fourth line — −19% and back by June. Shape is the crash.
47
GFC, Feb 2009 month-end, peak = 100
The deeper the crash, the longer the wait. Except twice.
S&P 500 price, peak to trough versus months from the low back to the old high. 1929 is a different animal. 2020 is the other exception: −34% and whole in five months. 2022 was −25% and fifteen. There is no 2026 crash on this wall.
5 mo
2020: trough to prior peak (price)
Interest now costs more than the Pentagon
In fiscal 2025 the United States paid $970 billion in net interest on the public debt. Defence cost $893 billion. The bond market is now a larger federal programme than the armed forces.
$970bn
US net interest, FY2025 (CBO)