Markets · Issue 02
Gold’s year averaged $3,431. Two years earlier it was $1,800.
World Gold Council: LBMA annual average $1,800 in 2022, $2,386 in 2024, $3,431 in 2025 — up 44%, with 53 record highs. Q2 2026 printed $4,506. That is a quarter. It is not a year.
- LBMA annual average, 2025 (WGC)
- $3,431
- Versus 2024’s $2,386
- +44%
- Q4 2025 average
- $4,135
- Q2 2026 average — a quarter
- $4,506
The year-table, not the spike
World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2025: the LBMA (PM) gold price set 53 new all-time highs. The annual average was $3,431.5 an ounce, up 44% from $2,386.2 in 2024. Two years earlier, the FY 2023 table had printed $1,800.09. Q4 2025 averaged $4,135. That is the year. Hard money, soft reserves on this desk indexes the same move against bitcoin and against the reserve share; A thousand tonnes a year counts the official bid. This page is the dollar. Jewellery fabrication was 1,638 tonnes. Bars and coins 1,374. ETFs 801. Central banks 863. Total demand 4,999 tonnes. The price did more of the $4.5 trillion official mark-up than the trucks did.
$4,506 is a quarter. $4,600 is a Tuesday. $5,500 was January.
GDT Q2 2026: the quarterly average was $4,506.29. Goldman, 25 August 2026: spot near $4,600 after a January spike above $5,500. WGC’s mid-year outlook talked about a $4,100 ±5% second half if nothing new happened, and $4,500 if something did. We do not promote a forecast, a quarter or a Tuesday to a year-table. The line on this wall ends at $3,431 — the last annual print — and January’s $5,500 stays in the essay, where a spike belongs. Pair with The $348 trillion ledger: the bid is fiscal and geopolitical. It is not a 2011 jewellery cycle.
The long view is insurance bought at a new mean
Own allocated metal sized to survive a $1,000 drawdown from $4,500, not a coupon that needs $8,000. The official bid doubled and then held; 863 tonnes in 2025 was a ‘slow’ year and still twice the old mean. What would change this page: a WGC annual average back under $2,500, or a year of official selling. Until then the dollar print and the tonne print rhyme, and they both sit above the 2010s.
Investing lens
Horizon 5–15 years · Educational, not advice
The 2025 annual average is a new mean, not a spike to fade on a 2013 memory. Hold bullion as fiscal-and-sanctions insurance. Do not underwrite $8,000, and do not treat a Q2 average as a year.
Where the map points
- Allocated bullion or physically backed low-fee gold
- A smaller bitcoin sleeve for convexity, if the mandate allows
- Miners as high-beta, not as the thesis
- Nothing that needs the next 53 record highs on a calendar
What can break it
- A real-rate shock that takes the annual average back toward $2,500
- Official-sector pause after a spike, as Q1 2026 briefly showed
- Confusing a quarterly average or a Tuesday spot with a year-table
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryWorld Gold Council2026-01-29Gold Demand Trends: Q4 and Full Year 2025
LBMA (PM) annual average 2025 $3,431.5/oz (+44% vs $2,386.2 in 2024). 53 record highs. Q4 average $4,135.2. Total demand 4,999.4 t; jewellery fabrication 1,638 t; bar and coin 1,374.1 t; ETFs 801.2 t; official 863.3 t.
- 02PrimaryWorld Gold Council2025-02-05Gold Demand Trends: Full Year 2024
LBMA (PM) annual average 2023 $1,940.5; 2024 $2,386.2 (+23%). Q4 2024 $2,663.4.
- 03PrimaryWorld Gold Council2024-01-31Gold Demand Trends: Full Year 2023
LBMA (PM) annual average 2022 $1,800.09; 2023 $1,940.54.
- 04PrimaryWorld Gold Council2026-07-30Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026
Q2 2026 LBMA average US$4,506.29/oz. Official-sector purchases 289 t. A quarterly average, not an annual print.
- 05ContextualGoldman Sachs Research2026-08Gold is forecast to climb as central banks buy
Spot near $4,600/oz on 25 Aug 2026; GS year-end 2026 forecast $4,900/oz.
Keep reading
A thousand tonnes a year, on purpose
Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. That is a ‘slow’ year. 2022–24 each cleared 1,000 tonnes. The pre-2022 average was about 470. This is the official sector rewiring the reserve stack.
863 t
Official-sector gold buying, 2025
Hard money, soft reserves
Central banks have been buying on the order of 1,000 tonnes of gold a year. Valuation, not tonnes, did most of the $3 trillion mark-up.
$4.5 tn
Official gold holdings, 2025 (IMF)
The $348 trillion ledger
Private and public debt set a record in 2025. Sovereign debt is heading back to 100% of world GDP — earlier than the IMF thought.
$348 tn
Global debt stock, end-2025 (IIF)
The dollar is slipping, not falling
The US dollar’s share of official FX reserves is 57.1%. It was 65% a decade ago. Gold has stolen the headlines; the euro is still 20%. This is diversification at glacial speed.
57.1%
US dollar share of allocated FX reserves, 2026Q1
Japan’s 10-year just cleared 3%
At the end of August 2026 Japan’s 10-year yield printed above 3% for the first time since 1996. The US 10-year is 4.75%. The UK 10-year is 5.26%. The cost of money is a regime again — in the country that taught the world it might not be.
3.0%
Japan 10-year yield, early Sep 2026