Resources · Issue 02
Congo mines 73% of the world’s cobalt
USGS 2025e: Congo (Kinshasa) 230,000 tonnes of 310,000. Indonesia is the only other double-digit share, at 14%, as a nickel by-product. The United States mined 300 tonnes. China still refines the chemical.
- 01Congo (Kinshasa)73% of world, USGS230,000
- 02Indonesia14%, nickel by-product44,000
- 03RussiaUSGS 2025e7,700
- 04MadagascarUSGS 2025e3,900
- 05Australiawas 4,780 in 20243,700
- 06PhilippinesUSGS 2025e3,700
- 07CanadaUSGS 2025e3,500
- Congo’s share of mined cobalt, 2025e (USGS)
- 73%
- Congo (Kinshasa), 2025e
- 230 kt
- World mine, 2025e
- 310 kt
- Indonesia, the nickel by-product
- 14%
A 73% mine, a 14% by-product, and a 300-tonne country
USGS 2026: Congo (Kinshasa) was the world’s leading source of mined cobalt and accounted for an estimated 73% of the world total, followed by Indonesia at 14%. The tonnes are 230,000 of 310,000, and 44,000. Indonesia’s cobalt is a nickel by-product: the same Sulawesi ramp that put 67% of nickel on the previous page put the only other double-digit cobalt share on this one. Russia 7,700. Madagascar, Australia, the Philippines, Canada — all in the 3,500–3,900 band. The United States mined 300 tonnes. LME cash, USGS: $21/lb in 2024, $15.48 in 2025e. The surplus is the chemistry (LFP) as much as the pit.
The mine is Congo. The chemical is China. Do not mix the rulers.
The existing refinery module on this desk puts China’s share of refined cobalt in the 75% class. Natural Resources Canada, wrapping BGS, has had Chinese refined output near 140,000 tonnes. That is a different chart. Artisanal pits, industrial copper-cobalt, and an HPAL nickel line are three supply stories that a ‘critical minerals’ ETF will happily blend. Pair with Indonesia mines two-thirds of the world’s nickel: the 14% here is that mine’s shadow. A 2030s EV book that is mostly LFP will not need 310,000 tonnes. A 2030s EV book that is still nickel-manganese-cobalt will need Congo, whether the slide says so or not.
The long view is offtake that can survive Kinshasa and Jakarta
Own copper-cobalt tonnes with a running mill and a offtake that is not a 2022 price, and the chemistry that can take less cobalt. Do not own a DRC-risk-free ‘battery metal’ basket. What would change this page: a USGS table with Congo below 50%, or the United States above 10,000 tonnes. 2025e is 73% and 300.
Investing lens
Horizon 6–15 years · Educational, not advice
Cobalt is a Congo mine with an Indonesian shadow and a Chinese chemical. Size the pit for jurisdiction, the by-product for nickel policy, and the cathode for LFP substitution.
Where the map points
- Copper-cobalt offtake with a mill, political-risk sized
- Cathode chemistry that can take less cobalt
- Indonesian nickel-cobalt as a by-product sleeve, not as a Congo hedge
- Avoid a blended ‘battery metal’ ETF as if the three were one mine
What can break it
- A Kinshasa export or royalty shock the rest of the mine cannot fill
- LFP and sodium-ion that make 310 kt look like 2018
- Artisanal-supply politics that hit the print without hitting the chemical
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryU.S. Geological Survey2026-02Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 — Cobalt
Mine production, cobalt content, 2025e: world 310,000 t; Congo (Kinshasa) 230,000; Indonesia 44,000; Russia 7,700. USGS share sentence: Congo 73%, Indonesia 14%. United States 300 t. 2024: world 302,000; Congo 226,000. LME cash $21/lb (2024), $15.48 (2025e).
- 02PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2026Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 — Executive summary
Indonesia is the top nickel refiner. Indonesia (nickel) and China (other energy minerals) accounted for over three-quarters of refined-supply growth in 2023–25. In nickel, manganese and graphite, virtually all supply growth came from the dominant supplier. Average top-refiner share 72% in 2025 excluding rare earths, up from 70% in 2023.
- 03PrimaryU.S. Geological Survey2026-02Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026
US remains import-reliant on China for a long list of critical minerals, including rare earths, graphite, gallium.
Keep reading
Indonesia mines two-thirds of the world’s nickel
USGS 2025e: 2.6 million tonnes of 3.9 million. The Philippines is second, at 270,000. Australia halved output and parked mines. The battery metal is a one-country ore.
67%
Indonesia’s share of mined nickel, 2025e
China still refines the transition
The IEA’s last minerals outlook was unambiguous: concentration at the refinery rose, not fell. China is the dominant processor of 19 of 20 strategic minerals.
70%
China’s average share of refined supply, 20 minerals
One in four new cars is now electric
The IEA counted 21 million electric cars in 2025. China already sells more EVs than ICE. America is the holdout.
25%
World new-car sales that were electric, 2025
A battery for $108
BloombergNEF’s 2025 survey: lithium-ion packs at $108/kWh, 93% below 2010. Stationary storage packs hit $70. This is the other learning curve, and it is why batteries ate the peak-gas plant.
$108
Li-ion pack price per kWh, 2025
The copper bind
Electrification, grids and data centres all drink copper. The IEA’s 2025 outlook still sees a 30% mined-supply gap by 2035.
30%
Implied copper supply shortfall by 2035