Energy · Issue 02
The emergency reserve is a 1982 number
DOE: the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 294 million barrels on 20 August 2026. The peak was 727 million in 2009. End-2025 was still 411. Hormuz did in eight months what a decade of policy did not.
- US SPR, 20 Aug 2026
- 294 mb
- Peak, 2009
- 727 mb
- End-2025
- 411 mb
- Last time stocks were this low
- 1982
A reserve that was spent
The Department of Energy’s 20 August 2026 site table is 294.1 million barrels. In December 2009 the caverns held 727 million. The 2022 Ukraine sale took it to the 370s; a partial refill got it back to 411 by the end of 2025. Then Hormuz. The US share of the IEA’s 400 million-barrel action was the second draw in four years. Pair this with Four hundred million barrels and Four million barrels a day, gone.
294 is a geology problem as well as a politics problem
Salt caverns do not like to be emptied and left. Days of import cover, at 294 million, is a 1980s number in a 2020s import-light America — the US is a net exporter of crude-plus-products — but a 13.6 million b/d producer still uses the SPR as the only fast stock. The investing tell is not ‘buy oil because the SPR is empty’. It is that the next shock has less official ballast, and that a refill at $80–90 is a fiscal line item Congress will fight.
The long view is a thinner buffer, permanently
Own flexible US production and the midstream that can actually move Atlantic barrels. Do not underwrite a 700-million-barrel SPR as a put. It is not coming back on a political timetable.
Investing lens
Horizon 2–8 years · Educational, not advice
The official oil buffer is a 1982 number. Size energy risk as if the next shock has less SPR. Own flexible US barrels, not a refill fairy tale.
Where the map points
- Short-cycle US shale with a hedge book
- Midstream and export docks that can swing Atlantic flows
- Refiners that can take non-Gulf grades
- Avoid treating a 700 mb SPR as a free put
What can break it
- A Hormuz reopening that collapses the crack and the crude together
- A refill mandate at a politically ugly price
- Confusing US net-exporter status with ‘no SPR needed’
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryU.S. Department of Energy2026-08-20SPR Quick Facts
294.1 million barrels as of 20 Aug 2026. Peak 726.6 million on 27 Dec 2009. End-CY2025 411 million.
- 02CorroboratedU.S. Energy Information Administration2026Short-Term Energy Outlook — global oil markets
Hormuz 2Q26 4.9 mb/d vs 21.6 in 4Q25. World liquids 2024 103.1, 2025 106.1, 2026 100.8, 2027 109.7. Neighbouring vintage to IEA 102 / 110.3.
- 03PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2026-03-11IEA Member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid market disruptions from Middle East conflict
32 members unanimously agreed to make 400 million barrels available. Sixth collective action; previous: 1991, 2005, 2011, twice in 2022.
- 04PrimaryU.S. Energy Information Administration2026-07-09The United States produced more crude oil than any other country in 2025
US crude including lease condensate averaged a record 13.6 million b/d in 2025, above the 13.2 million b/d record of 2024. Russia 9.9, Saudi Arabia 9.6.
Keep reading
Four hundred million barrels
On 11 March 2026 the IEA voted to release 400 million barrels from emergency stocks — three times the 2022 Ukraine actions combined, six times Katrina. The Strait of Hormuz is still not a market you can count on.
400 mb
IEA collective stock release, 11 Mar 2026
Four million barrels a day, gone
IEA August 2026: world oil supply is now projected to fall 4.3 mb/d this year, to 102 mb/d. Gulf output is still 8.3 mb/d below pre-war. The Americas can grow. They cannot replace a strait.
−4.3
mb/d, world oil supply 2026 vs 2025 (IEA)
America now pumps more oil than anyone ever has
EIA: US crude averaged 13.6 million barrels a day in 2025 — a record for the country and for any country. Russia did 9.9. Saudi Arabia did 9.6. The energy transition is real. So is the Permian.
13.6
US crude, million barrels/day, 2025