Energy · Issue 02
China now exports the electric car
IEA: Chinese electric-car exports doubled to more than 2.5 million in 2025. They were 35% of China’s car exports, up from 20% the year before. In the first half of 2026 they more than doubled again as the home market coughed.
- Chinese EV exports, 2025
- 2.5 m
- vs 2024
- 2×
- of China’s car exports, 2025
- 35%
- H1 2026 vs H1 2025
- +120%
The factory of the world, electric edition
IEA’s 2026 outlook is the sentence: China made 16 million electric cars in 2025, sold 13 million at home, and exported more than 2.5 million — double 2024. BYD, SAIC, Geely, Tesla-from-Shanghai. In countries outside Europe and the US, 55% of electric cars sold in 2025 were imported from China, up from under 5% five years earlier. This is how a surplus becomes someone else’s industrial policy problem.
A domestic cough, an export spike
H1 2026: China’s home car market −20%, electric exports +120%, EV share of car exports above 45%. Pair this with One in four new cars and One year of China. The investable tell is not ‘more BYD’. It is the tariff wall going up in Brussels and Washington, the inventory sitting on foreign docks (IEA: exports have exceeded overseas sales by more than 25%), and the markets that do not have a wall — Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Gulf.
The long view is a price, not a brand
A 2.5 million export flow at Chinese costs resets the global price of an electric car. Own the markets and dealers that can take the volume, the incumbents that can actually compete on cost, and the minerals that still sit in the pack. Do not own a 2024 European champion priced for a world without this chart.
Investing lens
Horizon 3–10 years · Educational, not advice
China’s EV surplus is now a traded good. Own cost leaders and open-market distribution. Size European OEMs as if the wall is leaky.
Where the map points
- Chinese OEMs with a real overseas dealer, sized for tariff risk
- Non-China distribution in ASEAN, LatAm, Middle East
- Battery chemicals and LFP at Chinese costs
- European volume brands only where a cost gap has closed
What can break it
- Tariffs that stick
- Inventory that was ‘exports’ and is not sales
- A home-market rebound that keeps the cars in China
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2026-05-20Global EV Outlook 2026 — Executive summary
Electric car sales >20 million in 2025 (one in four new cars). 2026 forecast 23 million, 28% of sales. Chinese automakers 60% of global EV sales.
- 02PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2026-05Trends in electric cars — Global EV Outlook 2026
China 13 million EV sales; Europe 4.2 million (28%); US ~1.5 million (~10%); rest of world 2 million.
- 03PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2026Electric Car Markets in a Time of Uncertainty — Executive summary
H1 2026 Chinese electric-car exports +120% y/y; EV share of China’s car exports >45%, from ~35% in 2025. Home car sales −20%.
Keep reading
One in four new cars is now electric
The IEA counted 21 million electric cars in 2025. China already sells more EVs than ICE. America is the holdout.
25%
World new-car sales that were electric, 2025
One year of China, America’s entire fleet
In 2025 China commissioned nearly 370 GW of solar. The United States has 279 GW of solar standing from every year it has ever installed. A single Chinese vintage now outweighs a civilisation’s stock.
370 GW
China solar additions, 2025 (IEA)
A battery for $108
BloombergNEF’s 2025 survey: lithium-ion packs at $108/kWh, 93% below 2010. Stationary storage packs hit $70. This is the other learning curve, and it is why batteries ate the peak-gas plant.
$108
Li-ion pack price per kWh, 2025
China still refines the transition
The IEA’s last minerals outlook was unambiguous: concentration at the refinery rose, not fell. China is the dominant processor of 19 of 20 strategic minerals.
70%
China’s average share of refined supply, 20 minerals