Resources · Issue 02
Indonesia mines two-thirds of the world’s nickel
USGS 2025e: 2.6 million tonnes of 3.9 million. The Philippines is second, at 270,000. Australia halved output and parked mines. The battery metal is a one-country ore.
- 01Indonesia67% of world, 2025e2,600
- 02PhilippinesUSGS 2025e270
- 03RussiaUSGS 2025e200
- 04CanadaUSGS 2025e140
- 05New CaledoniaUSGS 2025e140
- 06Chinamine, not refined120
- 07BrazilUSGS 2025e70
- 08Australiawas 98 kt in 202445
- Indonesia’s share of mined nickel, 2025e
- 67%
- Indonesia, 2025e (USGS)
- 2.6 Mt
- World mine, 2025e
- 3.9 Mt
- Australia, 2025e — care and maintenance
- −54%
The ore moved. The price did what surplus prices do.
USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: world nickel mine output 3.9 million tonnes in 2025, up 5%. Indonesia 2.6 million, up 13% as new operations kept ramping. That is 67% of the world’s ore, on the agency’s own tonnes. In 2024 it was 2.31 of 3.71 — already 62%. Goldman, in February 2026, called it ‘more than 60%’ and then watched Jakarta talk about permits and quotas. The Philippines is a distant second at 270,000 tonnes. Russia 200,000. Canada and New Caledonia 140,000 each. Australia 45,000, down 54% after mines went to care and maintenance on the price. The LME cash annual average fell another 11% in 2025. This is the lithium rhyme with a worse concentration.
Indonesia is the mine and the refinery. That is the IEA’s sentence.
The existing module on this desk — China still refines the transition — still holds for graphite, rare earths, cobalt chemicals and lithium. Nickel is the exception the IEA now writes in italics. Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026: Indonesia is the top refiner of nickel, and with China it accounted for more than three-quarters of refined-supply growth in 2023–25. In several markets, including nickel, virtually all the new tonnes came from the dominant supplier. A Class-1 sulphate plant in the West is a policy. A laterite HPAL line in Sulawesi is a print. Pair with Lithium grew ninefold: the 2020s already did the supply homework. The 2026 tell is Jakarta discovering it can throttle.
The long view is a quota, not a shortage
Own Indonesian offtake that is already licensed, and the high-pressure acid-leach and stainless books that actually take the ore. Size a Western Class-1 project as optionality, not as 2026 tonnes. Do not own a 2022 nickel squeeze as if USGS had forecast it. What would change this page: a USGS table with Indonesia below 50%, or Australia back above 100,000 tonnes. 2025e is 67% and 45,000.
Investing lens
Horizon 5–12 years · Educational, not advice
Nickel is a one-country mine with a one-country refinery. The rent is in licensed Indonesian offtake and in chemistry that can take laterite. A 2022 squeeze is not a 2026 earning.
Where the map points
- Licensed Indonesian HPAL and stainless offtake, political-risk sized
- Battery chemistry that can take Class-2 / mixed-hydroxide, not only Class-1
- A measured Western Class-1 sleeve as optionality
- Avoid a ‘nickel shortage’ ETF that is 2010s sulphide
What can break it
- Jakarta quotas that cut tonnes without raising the realised price
- LFP and sodium-ion that eat nickel-intensive chemistries
- A stainless recession that empties the ore book first
CHART does not recommend securities, funds or trades. Figures can be revised by their publishers. Do your own research and consider regulated advice before allocating capital.
Sources
Every headline number traces to a named publisher. Contextual sources inform the essay, not the key stat.
- 01PrimaryU.S. Geological Survey2026-02Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 — Nickel
Mine production, nickel content, 2025e: world 3.90 Mt; Indonesia 2.60; Philippines 0.270; Russia 0.200; Canada 0.140; New Caledonia 0.140; China 0.120; Brazil 0.070; Australia 0.045 (was 0.098 in 2024, −54%). 2024 world 3.71; Indonesia 2.31. LME cash annual average −11% in 2025. Indonesia +13% as new operations ramped.
- 02PrimaryInternational Energy Agency2026Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 — Executive summary
Indonesia is the top nickel refiner. Indonesia (nickel) and China (other energy minerals) accounted for over three-quarters of refined-supply growth in 2023–25. In nickel, manganese and graphite, virtually all supply growth came from the dominant supplier. Average top-refiner share 72% in 2025 excluding rare earths, up from 70% in 2023.
- 03ContextualGoldman Sachs2026-02-18How Indonesia Drove a Rally in Nickel
Indonesia ‘now accounts for more than 60% of global nickel mine supply.’ A slogan. The USGS table is 2.6 of 3.9 (67%). Used as context for the quota talk, not as the share on the wall.
Keep reading
China still refines the transition
The IEA’s last minerals outlook was unambiguous: concentration at the refinery rose, not fell. China is the dominant processor of 19 of 20 strategic minerals.
70%
China’s average share of refined supply, 20 minerals
Lithium grew ninefold. The price did not.
USGS: world lithium mine production reached about 290,000 tonnes of lithium content in 2025. In 2016 it was 38,000. Supply did the energy-transition homework. The price did the opposite.
290 kt
World lithium mine output, 2025
Seventy-one thousand dollars a tonne, then nine
USGS: US lithium carbonate averaged $71,100 a tonne in 2023 and $9,000 in 2025. The same mine complex that was a 2022 miracle is a 2026 balance-sheet test. Production went ninefold. Price did the opposite.
−87%
US lithium carbonate, 2023 to 2025 (USGS)
Kazakhstan mines 39% of the world’s uranium
World Nuclear Association, 2024: 60,213 tonnes of uranium from mines. Kazakhstan 23,270 tU (39%), Canada 14,309 (24%), Namibia 7,333 (12%). Three countries are three-quarters of the yellowcake. Kazatomprom printed 25,839 tU for 2025.
39%
Kazakhstan’s share of mined uranium, 2024
One in four new cars is now electric
The IEA counted 21 million electric cars in 2025. China already sells more EVs than ICE. America is the holdout.
25%
World new-car sales that were electric, 2025